Research On The Effect Of Policy In Urban Rail Transit Development

With temporal and spatial characteristics features of fast, punctual, convenient, safe, large volume and higher transport efficiency, urban rail transit has become an important part of urban public transportation. Urban rail transit in our country is developing rapidly, although started late, which is inseparable from the role and impact of relevant policies. Accurate understanding of the mechanism and policies affect to the development of urban rail transit make important practical significance to policy making.This paper illustrate the role of urban rail transit policy and the effect of the development path, with established an urban rail transit policy transmission model of a macro-level analysis framework on the study of policy. And realize simulation on the base of complex adaptive system theory.In theory, this paper analyzed the policy implications of urban rail transit route for supply and demand, explains the mechanism of urban rail transportation policy based on institutional economics and policy transmission mechanism. Appropriate planning policies, financing policy, technology policy and operation policy will increase the supply of urban rail transit infrastructure and services, economies of scale and economies of scope as well as the combined effect of the presence of network effects will encourage passengers to choose rail transit and improve the sharing rate. Due to the substitution effect, income effect, the existence of price elasticity, policy can also encourage or restrict the choice of travel mode. Overall, the policy will affect the supply and demand of urban rail transit, thus contributing to the development of urban rail transit.In empirical research, based on complex adaptive systems theory, this paper established a complex model of Beijing urban rail transit policy system, simulate the sharing split under different policy environment using Netlogo. The result showed the impact of change about vehicle restriction and investment is more obvious, which regulation of automobile ownership and fare change has little effect. This result provides a reference and basis for urban transport policy making.