Empirical Test On The Trade Effect Of India’s Chemical Industry Anti-dumping To China

In recent years, India which has replaced the United States and the European Unionbecome the country of the largest number of anti-dumping cases on China and theproportion of chemical products is highest in all industries of India’s anti-dumpinginvestigation. In this context, India’s anti-dumping trade effects of chemical products onChina are worth concerning.This paper is divided into five chapters. Firstly, by theoretical analysis, the paperdefines trade destructive effects, trade diversion effects, trade deflection effects and tradedepression effects and explains the relationship among the four. Because the results oftrade deflection effects and trade depression effects are not significant, this paper mainlyanalyzes trade destructive effects and trade diversion effects. Then through the observationof the trade data, estimate chemical products anti-dumping that India launched to Chinaroughly whether it exists to reduce our country related products export flow and increaseexport competitors flow trend. Then, on the reality basis of the chemical industry productwith10-digit HS level monthly data, we conduct empirical test on the effect to examine theexistence and size of the trade destruction effect and trade diversion effect in differentstages. At last， based on the analysis before， the article from the perspective ofmacroscopic and microcosmic put forward the relevant suggestions.According to the results of India anti-dumping measures against China chemicalindustry product, it can produce negative trade destruction effect to our country, at thesame time it can cause competitors’ increased exports to India so that it can producepositive trade diversion effect. But for different products, the existence of trade diversioneffect is different. At the same time these two trade effects begin to appear in six monthsafter the preliminary ruling, which is the most obvious in six months after the final ruling.China should promote BRIC national cooperation mechanisms, strengthen bilateralexchanges, adjust the structure of export commodities to India, closely observe the case ofanti-dumping of India to other competing country productions. To reduce the trade disputesbetween China and India and healthy develop bilateral economic and trade relations.