Prediction Analysis Method Of Sino-US Aviation Market Passenger Demand

Sino-US routes has always been an important part of Chinese airline’s international routes, known as the most profitable gold routes. With the rapid development of China’s economy, the deepening of Sino-US exchanges, the income of our people due to increased travel demand, which are for the Sino-US air transport market continues to provide the foundation for rapid development. In recent years, the number of new aircraft carriers remotely increased, and also provide the conditions for the new international long-haul routes. So how to analyze the Sino-US airline market, forecast future passenger demand is an important issue of major airlines need to be resolved. This paper introduces the system dynamics method to predict demand among the established demand forecasting model based on system dynamics focuses on three aspects:The first is based on the Sino-US airline transport market overview OD flow analysis, using direct specific OD flow characteristics of the statistical analysis of the overall Sino-US air transport market, the transit market conditions, the airline fleet and so on. And these data when combined airline’s development strategy for the future prospects of the Sino-US air transport market to do the analysis.The second is based on system dynamics of Sino-US passenger demand forecasting model. This paper introduces a more dynamic system dynamics model to explain the advantages of the system dynamics of the problem, the steps and the use of the software situation. On the specific characteristics of the Sino-US airline transport market analysis of the impact factor of four, and entropy method with the right impact factor redo the analysis, then use Vensim software build system dynamics model, and the model validity and sensitivity test, test prove US routes passenger demand forecasting model based on system dynamics is effective and stable, using the model of the future of Sino-US route traffic to do predictive analysis.The third point is the study of the Sino-US airline passenger demand forecasting model second-tier cities. Firstly, the second-tier cities nonstop US market context, the United States on the second-tier cities nonstop routes Market Position and cluster analysis done. In terms of predicting traffic still using the system dynamics model, but the introduction of a detailed analysis of a particular route traffic Another point of impact of different factors, and Chengdu-San Francisco route as an example of this model makes specific analysis. In second-tier cities nonstop US routes traffic forecasting model, after inspection, to determine the model has good stability and accuracy in predicting short-term specific route traffic.