Research On The Energy System Model Based On The Iriterval Programming

The energy system involving the process of the energy resources production, supply, transmission and consumption covers such areas as the economy, energy and environment. Thus, to research and analyze the energy system and to strategically plan the energy structure could provide scientific and practical measures for the decision-makers in the management of energy demand, supply, energy conversion and technology promotion at country level and area level as well as department level. In the long-term programming of the energy system, there exist substantial uncertainties, complexities among the factors it involves and the close links between the factors and the surrounding environment. Therefore, it’s fairly urgent to building an effective optimization model through formulizing the relationships of the various factors. And the uncertainties in the system were addressed through specific optimization methods.A model coupling the simulation-prediction process and the optimization process aimed at managing the energy system of the country was built in the specific context in China. An ARMA model was introduced to predict the power demand in the simulation-predition process. The optimization submodel with the aim of minimizing the total system cost was built afterwards. The submodel solved on the basis of the data from the previous process relates to the process of energy resources production, processing, energy conversion, intermediate and final consumption of the energy resources, power transmission and distribution, the import and export of the energy resources and pollutants emissions.It’s a medium-term large scale model involving economy, energy, electricity and environment which covers an area of the whole country. And the uncertainties in the system can be dealt with methods as the interval programming. What’s more, the model closely integrates with the carbon reduction policy. The power industry structure, the pollutants emissions and their cost accountings, the supply and demand structure of the primary and the end-use energy resources are comprehensively analyzed in the part of the model results, which can provide practical guides for the decision makers in the energy resources management in China in the future.