Cost Of Carbon Reduction Research Under Low Fossil Energy Price

Carbon reduction need large cost, and a country’s economic level is higher, can withstand more pressure to reduce emissions. In terms of the world, the main task of emission reduction lies in the developed countries, they are the main force of emission reduction. And when the oil price is high, developing countries such as China can undertake a part of emission reduction tasks. With the breakthrough and commercialization of shale gas production technology, international oil prices decline rapidly from $120 per barrel to $50 per barrel. But for now, For China, to use new energy to replace fossil fuels too much will cause great harm to a country’s economic; will affect the reasonable sustained economic growth. Therefore, when the oil price is low, we should consider the gas and oil to replace coal. And I begin my research under this new situation and new background. This paper calculated the carbon emission reduction cost between low carbon fossil energy and high carbon fossil energy, new energy and fossil energy. When the oil prices below $50 a barrel, the carbon emission reduction cost of new energy is larger, losing competitiveness. So we can not blindly use new energy instead of coal, should also increase the reasonable proportion to oil, natural gas instead of coal. To structure dynamic EPE model to study the inherent law of interaction between fossil energy and new energy, the country can according to the economic development situation, choose the way of energy conservation and emissions reduction and speed, and provide scientific basis and effective method for the policy path of energy conservation and emissions reduction. This article mainly do research in the following several aspects.1. To analyze the carbon emissions cost of different energy replacing coal through cost-benefit methods. Based on the same calorific value theory, to calculate different energy instead of coal to realize one ton of carbon emission reduction needs how much cost to pay. The calculation results show that, the carbon emissions cost each in oil and gas to replace coal is 5229.933 yuan/ton (i.e.,$120/ barrel) and 918.374 yuan/ton. And with oil prices falling, cost falling, $40 a barrel to 1234.22 yuan/ton, and higher cost obviously to reduce emissions of new energy, solar energy is 3993.552 yuan/ton, wind power is 2204.239 yuan/ton. We should put forward reasonable energy policy according to the oil price, can not blindly use new energy reduction, or it will increase energy costs and affect economic development.2. In order to break through traditional research of new energy policy in isolation, to better meet the needs of the new energy policy under the fossil energy prices low selection, to structure energy price equilibrium model(EPE), to analyze 10 kinds of price balance situation of the fossil energy and new energy dynamicly, and put forward the equilibriums (i.e., a4, a5, a6) under the background of fossil energy low price.Finally, the corresponding policy recommendations proposed through the above analysis, that is, China should carry out the national carbon market as soon as possible, so that it is more conducive to the promotion of energy-saving and emission-reduction. I Hope that this study can provide certain reference basis for policymakers, as well as developing countries with similar situation with China also can learn from it.