Research On Regional Energy System Emission-Reduction Effect Evaluation And Optimization Management Under Uncertainty

Scientific and reasonable energy system planning and management is the basis of ensuring coordinated development between human society, economy and environment. However, rapid economic development, population growth and urbanization acceleration has brought tremendous pressure to energy system management since entering the 21 century. Nowdays, the energy system is facing a series of dilemmas, such as contradiction between supply and demand, unreasonable structure and backward technology. Meanwhile, the increasingly serious air pollution highlights the external environmental pressure. Therefore, in order to optimize the regional energy structure and improve the environemtal quality, it is desired to conduct studies on quantitative evaluation of economic environmental impact on regional energy system for energy conservation and emissions reduction. Moreover, researches on regional energy structure adjustment based on the uncertainty optimization theory is significant to promote the sustainable development both in economy and ecological environment.Based on the comprehesive analysis of regional energy system, this study aims to develop the evalution method of regional energy system mitigation effect in order to quantifiably evaluate these complex relationships among energy system, mitigation strategies and environmental protection, and propose the optimization model of regional energy structure adjustment considering the total amount control plan, and performing the dynamic interactions between regional energy system and environmental system. Meanwhile, the mitigation effect analysis and optimal management of the energy system in Shanghai were taken as the cases to verify the effectiveness of the proposed models. These results is ecpected to be helpful to supporting effective management of regional energy system. In detail, the related research contents are as follows:(1) An regional energy system planning model based on an integration of existing interval two-stage stochastic programming and robust method would be developed within considering the cost risk and system benefit in order to deal with the contradiction between energy supply and demand and the difficulty of structure transformation; (2) In order to investigate the dynamic realtionship between energy demand and pollutants emission, an accounting method of emission reduction for greenhouse gases and SO2 would be proposed and applied to industries with higher energy consumption; (3) Under consdering the regional energy structure adjustment and collaborative emission reduction, pollutant emissions and related mitiagation potential would be accounted in order to explore the interactions of various powers installed capacity proportions and pollutants emission; (4) Based on the analysis of comlexities and uncertainties in electric system, an energy system optimization and adjustment model consdering the total amount control of coal consumption and multiple pollutants emission would be advanced for supporting the optimal energy allocations and further ensuring the stable development of economy and society in Shanghai.The obtained results indicated that this study makes improvements on the traditional researches in terms of uncertainty models, the stress evalution and the economic-environmental benefit analysis of energy conservation and emission reduction. The research contents and conslusions are close to real policies and management strategies, and enrich case studies of energy system optimization under uncertainty. It would provide valuable support for coordination development of economy, society and energy system.