| As the primary industry of the three main industries, agriculture is the development base of national economy. And grain production, as the main part of agricultural production, is the foundation of development base. If there is no stable grain supply, there is no basic living guarantee and national stability and harmony. In January of 2015, the State Council issues Some Suggestions on How to Establish and Perfect the Grain Security Governor Responsibility System. They say overall arrangement about how to establish and perfect the grain security governor responsibility system and request governmental administrations of provincial level should shoulder the responsibility of grain security in respective regions; comprehensively enhance the grain production, storage and logistics, promote the sound development of grain industry and guarantee the national grain security.Among the factors impacting grain production, no doubt that arable land takes a crucial position. Arable land is the lifeblood of grain output. Without arable land, grain production would be impossible. In recent years, our population keeps increasing at a stable rate. With a large population, limited arable land, the deepening of urbanization exacerbates the situation of arable land. What’s more, during the process of arable land use, there exist some problems, such as poor utilization efficiency, low productivity and underdeveloped potential in arable land. What we confront with and need to solve is how to reasonably and intensively utilize limited arable land to stabilize grain output, guarantee national grain security and realize sustainable, stable and harmonious development. Therefore, it is of significance to analyze arable land utilization and grain development situation in a region, research their relationship in order for the government to learn the reality of local development to draw up reasonable laws and regulations and policies in accordance with agricultural development to protect arable land and the interest of peasants.Henan Province is a important province in grain production in our country. Its grain output in 2013 is 57,137 million tons, accounting for 9.4% of the total grain output, closely after Heilongjing Province as the second one in China. Zhoukou City as the biggest grain output city, its total output is 7,938.7 million tons, 13.9% of the whole province. So Zhoukou plays a crucial role in Henan’s grain development. This paper is to analyze and research the arable land utilization situation, the intensive level of arable land and the impact of intensive arable land on grain output, taking Zhoukou as the study area. At first, thi paper illustrates the concerned concepts of arable land, intensive utilization of arable land, grain productivity and sustainable utilization. On the basis of the study of Zhoukou’s general development situation, it builds an evaluation index and system according to Henan’s statistical yearbook, Zhoukou’s statistical yearbook, 2013 statistical bulletin of Zhoukou’s national economy and social development as well as statistics and materials provided by concerned departments. It makes a standard process of the index by minimax algorithm with Excel, defines weight by entropy evaluation method and calculates the intensive level of Zhoukou and all counties’ arable land by weighted models. At last, with STIRPAT model and spss19.0, it analyzes all the factors from the perspective of relevance, main ingredient and east square method. It also analyzes the impact of intensive level on grain output to learn the intensive level of arable land in Zhoukou and all the counties and the grain output’s dependence on arable land intensive level. The research result shows:(1)In the terms of arable land intensive use, Zhoukou’s in moderate level. In 2003, the intensive level of Zhoukou is 0.216; in 2012, it is 0.36. Thus, it is in a state of increasing. Except for some counties, the differences between other ones are not big with a balanced intensive level. In the terms of arable land use, Zhoukou is based on household contract with disperse use and small scale; its arable land’s bio-environment needs to be improved under many natural conditions restraints. In the terms of grain output, grain output of Zhoukou is increasing year by year stably with summer grain output much more than autumn grain output. The implementation of some measures benefiting people and stable increase of grain price improve the enthusiasm of peasants in grain planting to some degree.(2)the intensive development level of cultivated land has a significant impact on grain yield.In the terms of the impact of arable land intensive level on grain output, the result shows that every 1 percent the intensive level increases, grain output will increase 0.181%; every 1 percent the grain planting area increases, it will increase 0.219%; every 1 percent the used fertilizer increases, it will increase 0.254% by models and SPSS analysis. Therefore, during the arable land use and development process in Zhoukou, peasants’ intensive sense of arable land should be enhanced to give the full play to arable land potential. At the meantime, grain price should be protected to guarantee peasants’ interest so that peasants’ enthusiasm can be increased. Then grain planting area will not be lessened and the input of arable land will not be shorten.Based on the analysis and arable land use and realistic grain development in Zhoukou, this paper puts forward some strategies on Zhoukou’s arable land use and grain production: to protect arable land and guarantee grain planting area; to increase technological and financial input to arable land and improve arable land’s performance; to make experiences on land circulation and realize operation in scale; to pay attention to the protection of arable land ecology and build ecological civilization of arable land. |
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