Study On The Influence Of The Industrial Structure On Intensive Urban-Land Utilization In Sichuan Province Based On STIRPAT Model

As China's economic development enters a new era,the relationship between the scarce land resources and economic development also enter a new phase.In the new era,land use methods must persist in the path of intensive useand continue to promote the potential for exploitation and idle land.The basic carrier for the survival and development of the industry is land.The optimization of industrial structure will affect the land resources from aspects such as the use of land,utilizationand spatial distribution.Therefore,coordinating the relationship between industrial structure and land use can ensure the steady development of the urban economy.This paper took Sichuan Province as the study area,firstly analyzed the dynamic changes of the intensive use of urban land and the industrial structure and competition effect in cities from 2001 to 2015,and then used the STIRPAT model to explore the influence of Sichuan's industrial structure on the intensive use of urban land.Based on this,the ARIMA model was used to predict the compositional effects and competitive effects of the city's industrial structure.Through optimizing and adjusting the industrial structure of each city,the improvement of the level of land intensive use would be promoted.This article mainly had the following conclusions:(1)From the analysis of urban land intensive use and industrial structure effects,the urban land intensive use level in most cities in Sichuan Province had a stable or increasing trend from 2001 to 2015.The intensive use of land in a few cities showed a clear downward trend,and there were regional differences among cities.From 2001 to 2015,the volatility of the compositional and competitive effects of industrial structure in most cities showed a trend from small to large over time,and the differences in industrial structure effects between regions were becoming more pronounced.(2)From the time dimension analysis,the three stages were divided according to the volatility of the industrial structure effect.During the first phase(2001-2005),the second phase(2006-2010)and the third phase(2011-2015),the constitutive effects and competitive effects of industrial structure had a non-linear effect on the intensive use of urban land,and the significance of its impact decreased with time.The effect of industrial structure in all three stages contributed to the intensive use of urban land.For the competition effect,in the first two stages,the industrial structure competition effect was not conducive to the intensive use of urban land,and the effect of industrial structure competition in the third stage was conducive to the intensive use of urban land.(3)From the spatial perspective,the industrial structure of Deyang City,Mianyang City,Leshan City,Yibin City and Bazhong City had a linear impact on the intensive use of urban land.The rest of the urban's industrial structure had a nonlinear effect on the intensive use of urban land.Among the non-linear effects,most urban industrial structure constitutive effects had a U-shaped impact on urban land intensive use,and the effects of industrial structure competition in most cities had an inverted U-shaped effect on urban land intensive use.(4)From the analysis of types of urban land intensive use trends,according to the dynamic changes in the impact of industrial structure on urban land intensive use and the prediction of industrial structure effects,the development trends of urban land intensive use in 18 cities in Sichuan Province were divided into five types,namely the upper and lower type,the lower and upper type,the upper and lower type and the single type.In order to promote the intensive use of land in cities and towns in different cities,suggestions were made on the optimization and adjustment of industrial structures in future cities for different types of trends.