The Interactive Relationship Between Export Trade And Import Trade

Since the reform and opening up, foreign trade of Henan Province and the trade surplus have a rapid growth. As we all know, the appropriate trade surplus can promote economic growth, increase foreign exchange reserves, enhance the comprehensive national strength which is conducive to maintaining a good international reputation, keep the balance of the total economy, and strength the capacity of China to fight the economic risks of globalization. However, the large trade surplus will cause pressure on RMB appreciation, trade friction increase, weak the effects of monetary policy, raise the cost of foreign exchange reserves, and effect the interest rate marketization of the financial industry. Therefore, this article selects import and export trade of henan province as the research object. On the basis of theoretical analysis of the interaction between import and export trade, the article uses empirical analysis to inspect the interaction between import and export trade. So it has profound theoretical significance and practical significance to the healthy development of foreign trade in henan province.Firstly, the article uses empirical analysis to inspect the interaction between import and export trade. We research promoting effect from general trade and processing trade. Under the way of general trade, export trade promote the development of import trade mainly by increasing the national income, promoting industrial upgrading, and participating in the international competition to improve product competitiveness. Imports promotes the development of export trade mainly by supplying limits, the technology spillover effect, system innovation effect, increasing foreign currency demand to improve product price competitiveness. Under the way of processing trade, processing trade has a characteristics of “two outer”, so imports means exports. Therefore, under the processing trade there is a obvious promoting relationship between import and export trade. We study the inhibition mainly from the classical trade theory and new classical trade theory. The main conclusion is that a country will not import the product which it has already have a competitive advantage.The article analysis the current situation of foreign trade development in henan province, such as trade volume, trade structure, trade body, trade way, import and export commodity structure and trading partner. So find out the problems in the development of foreign trade, such as imbalance of import and export, foreign trade market concentration, imbalance of regional development, not reasonable of foreign trade commodity structure. Then by use co-integration analysis, granger causality test, impulse response, poor decomposition, VEC model, respectively to find out if import and export trade of henan province exists equilibrium, what is the causal relationship, what is short-term interference effects, what is short-term interference conditions, what is the variation of both and whether it can return to equilibrium in the long-term.Finally, we get the conclusion from the theoretical analysis and empirical analysis is that there is a long-term co-integration relationship between export trade and import trade and the performance is positively. At the same time the article gives the corresponding policy recommendations, such as encouraging import ease trade surplus; Optimizing the import and export commodity structure; Developing the emerging markets, and promoting the development of foreign trade market diversification; Actively developing service trade, consolidate the traditional service trade; developing modern service industry to create a good investment environment which can attract foreign direct investment, etc. So as to promote the balance development of export trade and import trade in henan province and form a positive interaction.