| After2006, Chinese real estate development enterprises developeddramatically at a rate of more than20%during following4years and thusplayed a vital part in GDP growth, which is well deserved the pillar industry ofnational economy. However, the rapid development feeds bubbles and the wildhome prices scared the average people off. Chinese government introduced aserious of real estate regulation polices, including the “National Ten”,”NationalFive”in2010and the new “National Eight”in2011, aiming to restrict thefinancial channels of real estate enterprises and suppress the housing demandsof customers. As these regulation policies came in play, the investment of realestate market slowed down, the trading volume shrank and the stock column ofunsold hosing kept increasing in2014. The Real Estate Climate Index, which iscalled the indicator of real estate enterprises, took a downfall month by month.Most property developers cut prices, hoping to return funds as quickly aspossible. The downward trend spread from a few cities to nationwide. On theother hand, consumers were holding back to see what happens next so that thetrading volume was difficult to pick up for the moment and the capital chain ofreal estate business strained. Moreover, CBRC delivered a clear demand tostrictly control the loan of real estate enterprises at the National BankingSupervision Meeting of2014, giving a hard hit on the real estate business whichwas highly dependent on the banking credit, the vulnerable fund chain is atstake. Many real estate enterprises are taking huge financial risk, so how tomonitor and guard against financial distress has become the current urgentproblem. Enterprise financial risk pre-warning has been the research highlight athome and aboard. Most of the researches aimed at the listed companies as wellas the real estate business. The general research way is selecting pre-warningindicators on the basis of analyzing the real estate business features and theestablishing financial pre-warning models on the basis of different ways. Yet theprinciple of profits on the basis of accrual accounting was brought forwardwhen choosing pre-warning indicators rather than cash flow.As a matter of fact,profit indicator is easily to be manipulated whereas cash flow is hard to bewindow dressed because it cannot be accumulated. For another, the financialcrisis of real estate enterprises is a result of cash flow problem in the problem ofinvestment, financing and management, that is---the cash flow can not breakeven. The cash indicator should be given extra care for it can provide the mostobservable clues to the financial pre-warning. Based upon the requirements, thisessay studies financial pre-warning of Chinese real estate enterprises creativityfrom the point of cash flow against the background.The financial crisis pre-warning model built in this essay help real estatedevelopment enterprises and stakeholders to monitor in real time, forecastaccurately, take actions timely to lower the risks and keep away from crisis. Thespecific structure of the thesis us as follows: the first and second chapters aremainly about the reasons of selecting the topic and introduction of relatedtheories, making preparation for the post study. The third chapter analyzes thepresent state of real estate business and the main financial risks, defining thecritical role cash flow play in the financial risk pre-warning and pointing theprobability of choosing the cash flow as the indicator of financial riskpre-warning. The fourth chapter selects the financial risk pre-warning indicatorson the basis of cash flow of Chinese real estate development enterprises, beforewhich the limitation of traditional financial pre-warning indicator system isanalyzed and the necessity of cash-flow-base is further assured. On that basis,adopting the way of combing PCAapproach and Logistic, the fifth chapter takes the real estate listed companies as research objects and then establishes thefinancial risk pre-warning model whose accuracy is tested. The sixth one is theconclusion of the whole thesis.The distinction of the thesis are: firstly, it selects the cash flow as theindicators of financial risk pre-warning, providing more intuitive,comprehensive and accurate financial risk pre-warning information for realestate development enterprises, which becomes the basis of next-stage studywith new tools and new ways. Secondly, after choosing the pre-warning theproper indicator, it furthermore builds the financial risk pre-warning model onthe basis of cash flow, offering a more scientific and convenient means offinancial risk ore-warning to Chinese real estate development enterprises. |
PDF Full Text Request