Research On The Early Warning System Of Chinese Carbon Emissions Based On Export Trade

With the global economic growth, the degree of Chinese participation in the economic internationalization is increasingly high. In recent periods, the scale of Chinese export is expanding with amazing speed. While the scale of Chinese export trade continued to soar, the consumption of energy has been increasing and the emission of embodied carbon caused by the export trade is also on the increase. In which processing trade accounted for the major part of Chinese export trade structure. As one of the leading trading nations in the world, when the export trade triggered the growth of the national economy, it also brought a lot of embodied carbon emissions. Chinese export trade has become an important factor in their carbon emissions. Therefore, we study the relationship of the export and the carton emissions and build the early warning system of Chinese carbon emissions based on export trade that will give us some advices in theories and practices, such as developing Chinese economics,and trade restructures and so on.In this paper, through analyses of the research in the developments at home and abroad, to assess the present situation in Chinese carbon emissions embodied in export trade. According to the related research to reviews the theory of Chinese export trade carbon emission warning system. In order to do the early warning of of Chinese carbon emissions based on export trade, This dissert using the input-output analysis and the walrasian-kassel model measure Chinese export trade carbon emissions from the industry level. Aimed at the actual situation of Chinese export trade carbon emissions, the use of the theory of entropy weight index on the basis of empowerment, and building the grey neural network early warning model. And then, on the basis of the principle of index selection and index framework analysis, to select and determine the corresponding export trade early warning index system of carbon emissions.Finally, the paper through empirical analysis, early warning research was conducted on the carbon emissions of Chinese export trade, the result show that this early warning system has a strong reliability and accuracy, and its effect is obvious, uses this system to achieve efficiently the early warning to Chinese carbon emissions based on export trade, thus achieves the function which prevents ahead of time and warning to export trade carbon emissions. The research of the thesis further provide certain reference basis for the strengthen the management of Chinese export trade carbon emissions, and in order to promote the healthy and stable development of Chinese export trade hasimportant significance.