The Research On Early Warning System For Hunan Province To US Export Trade

The economical early warning refers to one whole set theory of economy monitor, the economic evaluation, the economical forecast, policy choice and the system method which revolves the economic cycle, the specific economic phenomena. Through the establishment of economy early warning system, we can analysis economic phenomena and its characteristic, understand the tendency of economic phenomena changes, thus we can carry on the forecast to the future economical change situation, which has extremely vital practical significance regarding the economical development. Along with the export trade development, the trade friction and the conflict frequent occurrence in Hunan as well as our country, the establishment of export trade early warning mechanism will have the important protection and the promoter action to the export trade and even the entire economical development. Based on the importance of Hunan Province and the US export trade to the foreign trade economy development, in grasping the export trade development condition tendency of domestic and foreign and in the Hunan Province, through learning from other economical domains the research results and the method, this article builds the export trade early warning system of Hunan Province to the US export trade. The establishment of this early warning system will provide the effective export trade monitor early warning for the trade manage department, the enterprise which produce export product and the trade department, which have the important theory significance and the practical significance for reducing the export trade cost in Hunan province, enhancing the exportation initiative, enhancing the power of international competitive .Since 1930s, the research of economical early warning domain overseas has already obtained the very great achievement, proposed many models and the method, but the domestic research starts quite late, which mainly starts in intermediate stages of 1980s, and the main study is on the macroscopic economical domain and the financial domain, little on the foreign trade domain. Based on analyzing model method and the experience of other domains at home and abroad and through serviceable analysis, this article establish the export trade early warning model to US for Hunan Province thoroughly the foundation creatively.There are 5 chapters in this article, the questionnaire surveys and present research situation at home and abroad as well as the research thought and method, key difficult,...