Design Of Export Trade Risk Early Warning Index System For Shandong Agricurtural Product

Agriculture as China's first industry,is the basic industry of social and economic development.It is of great practical significance to promote the steady growth of agricultural trade and promote the development of rural economy and realize the increase of farmers' income.At the same time,it is of great practical significance to speed up the progress of agricultural science and technology and adjust the industrial structure and the smooth operation of national economy.Shandong Province is located in the eastern coast of China and is the big angricultural province of China.The climate is suitable and the geographical position is superior,and Japan,South Korea across the sea,with rich agricultural natural endowment and convenient port,which provides a great convenience for processing and export trade of agricultural production.In recent years,with the economic development and trade to strengthen,agricultural exports of Shandong Province is various to countries and regions,but the main export market is relatively concentrated to South Korea,Japan,the United States and the EU-based.However the export of agricultural products in Shandong Province are mostly low value-added and labor-intensive products,so the quality is not up to the fine,green international standards.Due to excessive dependence on the export market,some developed countries with absolute technical advantages frequently adopting various trade barriers to protect their agriculture and increase the barriers to the export of agricultural products in developing countries.The relevant political,economic and trade policy changes will have a negative impact on the export of agricultural products in Shandong Province.Therefore,the design of a set of trade risk early warning index system that meets the actual export characteristics of agricultural products in Shandong Province can positively and effectively evaluate the implementation and impact of trade barriers measures in major export markets so as to timely discover problems and put forward countermeasures.This paper first combs and evaluates the literature review from both the domestic and international economic early warning and the risk early warning system,and follows the principles of scientific principle,qualitative and quantitative combination,and selects the indicators of police intelligence indicators,and classifies the risk early warning indicators.In this study,AHP and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation were used to construct the early warning index system of export trade risk of agricultural products in Shandong Province,and the trade data of agricultural products exported from Japan in recent years were analyzed by empirical analysis.Finally,combined with the results of case analysis and index warning,the export of agricultural products in Shandong Province encountered trade risks and impact is forecast and warning signals are output.Empirical analysis shows that the early warning model based on the AHP-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is practicable.The forecasting result obtained from the trade data between China and Japan is consistent with the actual situation.Therefore,the early warning index system has great practical value.In view of the risk of agricultural trade in trade barriers,this paper put forward countermeasures and suggestions to pre-control trade risk from the government,industry associations and enterprises three aspects.