Study Of The Chinese Shipping Market Risk Warning

The shipping industry is one of the major transportation means. Having merits like big carrying capacity, low cost, low energy consumption, use of the natural water etc., it has become a major mode of transportation for the near-sea nations to do foreign trade. However, the shipping industry is submitted to the dangerous natural environment and influenced by the ever-changing relationship in the international community, which make it a high-risk industry. Therefore, the establishment of a forewarning system is extremely important.This paper is developed in three parts. Firstly, it analyses factors affecting shipping industry development, and elaborates on the purpose and significance of this paper. This paper is to analyze a few big risks of shipping industry's cause and possible results, to put forward the homologous guard measures against the risks, to make shipping companies, which play an important role to a national economy of maritime country, realizing the risks clearly, avoiding the risks consciously, and reducing the risks. And then it represents and comments on the literature reviewed on three aspects - risk, shipping industry and the risks existing in the shipping industry. Based on the analysis of the literature and real situation in this industry, the author tries to generalize the formation mechanism of the shipping industry risks and categorizes the risk kinds.Secondly, in viewing the present situation of the foreign and domestic forewarning system theories, the author points out that the shipping forewarning system is an forewarning category differentiated from the macro-warning and micro-warning. Based on the actual operation of the shipping enterprise, the author puts forward operational methods and steps of forewarning system, including the establishment of risk surveillance system, risk supervision system. The two systems have the common premise and foundations, that is, the establishment of the index system of the shipping safety index.Finally, this paper applies the substantial evidence analysis. By using themeasure of the index system of the shipping safety index, collecting experts' opinion via the questionnaire, collecting data by applying scientific methods, estimating the data by non-linear method, getting the weighing of the index through the way of AHP, calculating the score of each statures of system index, and using "the wooden pail theories", the author finally fixes on the shipping safety index and draws an forewarning system diagram of the shipping safety of the subsystem and the whole system.