The Research On Financial Early Warning Model Of Listed Company From Chinese Manufacturing Industry

Economic globalization makes the world situation changed, the rapid development of economy and hitherto unknown opportunities in the brings to the enterprise has brought enormous challenge, however perfect global economic management system and the matching has not yet formed, enterprise faces many uncertainties increasing. The world’s top companies such as Enron, Arthur Andersen, polaroid, such as the collapse of the outbreak of the subprime crisis, USA company, suffered a financial crisis or even bankruptcy cases emerge in an endless stream, facing the fierce market competition environment, all companies have stepped up to its own financial condition of stability of attention, more and more attention to improve the company’s financial early warning system.Based on the actual situation in China, the Ministry of finance enterprise division in 2009 also has put forward the "enterprise from their own reality, to explore the establishment of enterprise financial early warning mechanism", "pay attention to giving play to the role of early warning of enterprise financial information, strengthening the enterprise’s financial risk monitoring and early warning of etc.. In general, any enterprise financial crisis worsen will experience a process, therefore, the financial early warning model to establish a perfect, sensitive manufacturing listing Corporation in China, the financial crisis as soon as possible, to reflect its eradication in the bud, for investors, the government and banks and other financial institutions of the state, registration accountant, creditors and potential creditors, managers and other stakeholders, it is particularly important.Papers to the listing Corporation of China’s manufacturing industry as the research object, the company because of the abnormal financial condition is the special treatment (ST or * ST) as the enterprise into a financial crisis, choose 2011-2013 years in China, Shanghai deep two city for the first time by the 27 financial crisis companies as samples in group ST, at the same time, by using the method of one one pair of year by year choose 27 financial health companies as paired group; preliminary selected reflect the solvency of enterprises (including short-term debt paying ability and long-term debt paying ability),62 variables are indicators of profitability, shareholders profit ability, development ability, operation ability and cash flow ability six aspects, and through the region-Karl Minov (K-S test K-S test), test of significance (independent samples T test and the Mann Whitney Wilkerson inspection), screened variables significantly, then variable indicator of significant principal component extraction in order to reduce the number of variables and eliminate the multicollinearity; then establishes Logistic regression model and ST 1-5 years ago to test the goodness of fit and predictive ability, the ability of ST to predict 1-5 years ago respectively 80%,94.4%,75%,59.1%,63.6%; finally the paper pointed out the A financial early warning model of the function and scope of application.By the Ocean University of China library resources, the massive collection, in writing the early identification and sorting out the literature at home and abroad, the paper selected topic batted and writing ideas. Then the paper focuses on how to advance the financial early warning of problems to our country manufacturing industry listing Corporation, the research object of financial early warning (i.e. financial crisis), a comprehensive system for sample selection, model construction and model using elements analysis, so as to find out the feasible solution. For the domestic and foreign research status of financial early warning framework, connotation definition of the financial crisis, the use of the existing model and the financial early warning model of financial early warning in the enterprise, this thesis adopts descriptive research method. In addition, through empirical research methods, the paper uses SPSS statistical analysis method to establish a Logistic regression financial early warning model, and tests the prediction ability.The paper in our country manufacturing industry listing Corporation, continuous selecting sample data for three years, and in the ST before the 1-5 annual paired choice of financial health companies as paired group; then selects 62 financial indicators for each company, respectively, to establish a regression model of Logistic ST before 1-5 years; rich data capacity is larger, the amount of information. Variables selected consists of 62 financial indexes of six aspects, has the elimination of abnormal value, the normal distribution test, test of significance (the normal using independent samples T test, the distribution does not meet the normal distribution using the Mann Whitney-will Kirk Sen test) and principal component analysis; the variable index comprehensively, handled properly. The study has established the regression model of Logistic ST 1-5 years ago, which can advance, timely find out possibility of the existence of the enterprise financial crisis early warning, plays a certain effect.