Technical Analysis Of Shanghai Existing Property Index

This thesis briefly reviewes the development of real estate industry and changes in macroeconomic control policy in China during the past two decades. Because of increasing importance in China’s GDP, studies on risk assessment of the real estate industry will be of academic and practical significances.Based on technical analysis methods, properties of the Shanghai Existing Property Index varied with time were investigated and then the trend forecasting of the index for the near future was conducted. The main research aspects are mentioned as follows.(1) Comparison of the variation of the Shanghai existing property index since November 2001 with the Elliot wave theory showed that the index has been run upward in the fifth Elliot’s wave at present and its target will be in 3061-3423 or at a time from August 2014 to December 2015.(2) The Rescaled Range Analysis or the R/S analysis method was used on the variation of the Shanghai existing property index. It was showed that the index significantly possesses the property of long-term memory, and the recent retracement started in July 2014 will perhaps be for reducing the large increasing rate during the early stage of the fifth wave.(3) An early warning index and an alarming index were proposed for the risk assessment of the Shanghai existing property market. Comparison of these two indices with the curve of Shanghai existing property index versus time showed that the Shanghai existing property market was safe till December 2013 and in early warning on September 2014.(4) Comparison of the variation of the Shanghai existing property index since November 2001 with the changes in China’s macroeconomic control policy was briefly conducted. It was showed that the Shanghai existing property index was not so sensitive to the macroeconomic control policy for decreasing the rising rate than for decreasing the retracement rate.