Research On Evaluation Of Coordinated Development Of Population,economy And Land In Ningbo

From Tenth Five-Year Plan to The Decision of Third Plenary Session of the eighteen,the theory about urbanization strategy is constantly renewal and optimized, but the behavior of government means they have found that most of problem about urban developing is emerging,and many have occurred. The urbanization rate of Ningbo(NB) have reached a new high which is69.4%, but the problem that structure of population couldn’t provide enough labor for economic is appeared, both of wasting of land resources, so researching on coordination of population,economy with land in microscope could help find with these problems. The different results of various developing mode have be simulated and analyzed could be related reference material for urbanization, either.Based on theory about urbanization at home and abroad, this paper adopts qualitative and quantitative analysis to discuss developing mode of NB now and evaluate coordination degree of population, economy with land. What’s more, concentrating on forecasting and simulating 5developing modes and aiming at the effect of population and scale of land to urbanization,with changing developing mode’s result.And then put forward the better developing mode of NB.Firstly, under the guidance of building principle, indicators about population, economy with land are built including scale and structure, calculate coordination degree by coordination model.In conclusion, developing mode urbanization in 2001-2005 is Population-Oriented, 2006-2011 is Land-Oriented,and economy develop most fast in 2012; coordination degree is improved from2001-2012, which the degree between economy and population is highest,population and land is higher in 2001-2005.And the degree between economy and land is highest, population and economy is higher in2006-2012. Secondly, based on influence mechanism and transmitting channels of population,economy and land, simultaneous equations model as three endogenous variable(GDP, built-up district area, resident population without registry) is built to discussdifferent achievements in investment on labor, land and R&D. In conclusion, forecast in 2020 shows that the mode is over-reliance on labor and built-up district area; investment on R&D is with produces long-term beneficial, and rarely depends on labor and built-up district area,improve is the same results as investing R&D;Population-developing mode is over-reliance on land developing, and mode of developing resident population without registry promoting economy better; land-developing mode is worst for economy in four modes. At last, considering status and coordination of population, economy and land, put forward three developing proposal, which is prompting economic transition, developing the population, urban land intensification.