| With the situation in Yemen of fermentation again in 2015, international oil prices rose as high as 5%, the supply and demand situation of oil affects every economy again. Oil is indispensable resource elements in production and life, is also a kind of goods with strong political sense. Although it was found only more than 100 years, has experienced three big oil crisis, nearly 30 times more oil supply disruption event. The sudden oil supply shortage has many characteristics such as : serious harm, wide range, strong derivatives and so on, affecting the normal work and economic development.Moreover, it can cause the global crisis. This paper using the PSR model to evaluate the safety of oil, studies the rule of the evolution of the sudden oil shortage, how the subject emergency response to sudden oil shortage, the concrete content is as follows:First, by using the PSR model framework, select three groups of nine representative indicators, on the basis of Grey correlation method and entropy value method, calculate the index of PSR namely Pressure-State-Response comprehensive evaluation coefficient of three indicators. Factors of the research results show that oil supply security threat level rise year by year, however, to ensure supply security and solve the security of supply but never more than two indexes of threat index of security of supply. Illustrates the rising threat factors is in the state of oil supply is not a steady state, oil supply crisis Because oil supply emergency occurs, high index told we need to supply emergency for deeper research.Secondly, from the introduction to the occurrence of emergency law of development as a benchmark, to happen three times since the 1950 s oil crisis, 29 foreign oil supply disruption accident, three domestic diesel shortages was summarized and concluded the three different cases, study the three different types of typical case of evolution process, summarizes the evolution of sudden oil shortage power factors, factors including, hazard-affected body, interference factors and pregnant disaster environment, according to the power factor if intervention, intervention, and event driven, sudden oil shortage evolution model is constructed. Research shows that: the evolution of the sudden oil into occurrence, development, evolution and put an end to the four stages; The power factor there is a difference of each stage; Throughout the evolution process, emergency intervention is an important driving force of sudden oil shortage evolution.Third, the oil supply of emergency response multi-agent relationship and coordination efficiency research. Combining with the examples in the fourth chapter summarized, and on the basis of oil supply system of the supply chain as the clue, choose inductive affect oil supply emergency seven participation main body and its influencing factors, namely: government(organization) subject(oil diplomacy, price controls, market access, limiting demand, monitoring and early warning), production main body(technical equipment investment cost, market location, increase production), marketing main body(total station and regional distribution, oil transportation supply), transportation subject(emergency supplies distribution, emergency routes), storage body(national strategic reserves, commercial reserves), competitors(replacement level) and the public subject(information timeliness and accuracy of the information release). Use causal chain relationship to seven main body, 17 factors affecting the main correlation analysis. Results show that the seven main correlation between formed a large closed connected to the Internet, which the government(organization) and the production of two major subject as the core, with the subjects of transport, storage, sales, the main body for the needle and thread, centered on the competitors and the public supervision and inspection, perfect the emergency response relation network. Using the synergy of entropy calculation method, with the examples of hurricane Katrina, the main research collaborative efficiency and coordinated degree between the response body. Results show that the cooperative efficiency, the government(organization) collaborative efficiency of minimum, the most efficient production and transportation subject.Fourth, based on Petri net oil supply multiple emergency response process simulation. Using visual object.net software for oil supply emergency response process model of emergency response body, homogeneous Markov chain analysis system steady state probability for system performance analysis. On November 1, 2007 to December 30, 2007 diesel shortages for the case of the simulation analysis, get the steady state probability of system, based on the calculated utilization main performance parameters of the busy period probability, change. The results show that the production of main body is the most busy, it is also the longest, but the government’s busy degree but have not reflected in the decision direction, but in the establishment of emergency command center or the transmission of information, and the organization was formed when time is longer. The public body takes very little. At the same time, the reserve utilization rate of the change of main body and busy period probability shows that the importance of it. According to the relevant contents of fourth and fifth chapter, combining the existing insufficient oil supply emergencies emergency management system, optimized the oil supply emergency multi-agent emergency response procedures.Finally, integrated the comprehensive study of the article, from development to protect the safety of oil import channels, establish and perfect the emergency management system and the multi-agent collaborative response to put forward policy Suggestions. At the same time, according to the relevant contents of the fourth, fifth, sixth chapter and the conclusion, combining with the existing sudden oil shortage of emergency management system, build and optimize the sudden oil shortage of multi-agent collaborative response framework. |
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