Research On Evolution Process And Emergency Decision-making For Sudden Oil Shortages

The successive oil supply disruptions have witnessed the negative impact of oil-importing countries on economic development and social stability.With the development of science and technology and the globalization of economy,China's economy has entered a period of rapid development.The demand for oil has been increasing year by year.Our government departments have paid more and more attention to the emergency management of sudden oil shortage.There is a lack of in-depth research on sudden oil shortages from the occurrence,development,evolution to the end of the process and the corresponding emergency decision-making.Therefore,this paper studies the evolution process of sudden oil shortage from the occurrence to the end of the whole process,summarizes its regularity in the process of evolution and the corresponding emergency decision law,and provides the theoretical basis for the improvement of emergency oil shortage emergency management system.Reference and action basis,for enhancing China's oil emergency capability is of great significance.Based on the theory of oil safety and emergent emergency management,this paper analyzes the evolution process of sudden oil shortage,and then studies the law of evolution process through modeling and simulation.Finally,according to the evolution rule,the key content of emergency decision is put forward.The specific research contents are as follows:First,through the analysis of the evolution of typical cases of sudden oil shortages,the evolution of the sudden oil shortage is clearly presented.To collect the causes of the sudden oil shortage,to summarize the characteristics of the sudden oil shortage,and to summarize the characteristics of the sudden oil shortage in the typical case selected by the time dimension.The factors influencing the occurrence,development and evolution of the oil shortage are summarized according to the theory of disaster.The influencing factors are classified as the causative factors,the carriers,the intervention factors and the predecessor factors,Through the analysis,it can be seen that the induced events that can cause the sudden oil shortage can be regarded as the disaster factors of sudden oil shortage.The oil supply chain can be used as the carrier,and its carrying capacity can enlarge or reduce the sudden oil The severity of shortages;the evolution of sudden oil shortages by the outside world,social,political,economic and other environmental factors;government,oil organizations and other emergency intervention will affect the effectiveness of the recovery rate of oil interruption.According to the Turner crisis life cycle theory,according to the dynamic factors,To the role of sudden oil shortages evolution process structure.Secondly,according to the theory of Petri net modeling,this paper constructs the Petri net model of sudden oil shortage evolution in the process of sudden oil shortfall abstracted in Chapter 3,in which the dynamic factors in the process of evolution are The relationship between the influencing factors and the analysis of the evolution probability of the evolutionary system and the performance analysis index of the evolution system are given.Based on the case of Hurricane Katrina,the average rate of the relevant change is given,and the validity of the model is verified according to the evolution system performance index According to the change value of the above case,the evolution rule of the sudden oil shortage is summarized by changing the effect of the influencing factors on the state of the evolution system by changing the average implementation rate of each transition,Specifically: the sudden shortage of oil is due to the prevention of early warning of the risk of oil security risks continue to accumulate,the risk can not be identified in time,the fuse of the destructive power of the oil supply system beyond the capacity of the oil supply disruption;For the occurrence of oil supply disruption can not be timely release of information to intervene,leading to oil supply disruptions from the production side to the international oil trade market,causing other oil-importing countries to buy oil,increase the degree of sudden oil shortage;sudden oil When the shortage reaches a certain level,the rise in oil prices,which affect the oil imports of oil imports,oil stocks are limited,not promptly start emergency response to increase oil supply or limit oil demand,resulting in oil shortages impact production life,making the sudden The government has set out emergency plans for the sudden shortage of oil.With the implementation of the contingency plan,the reserve capacity is put into production,the strategic oil reserve is in place,the demand side receives the demand,the oil production country increases the output making sudden oil-onset short back to normal supply level.Thirdly,based on the theory of contingency decision-making mechanism system,this paper analyzes the principle,principle,process and operation of sudden oil shortage in the second and third chapters on the characteristics of sudden oil shortage and the evolution mechanism This paper summarizes the key elements in the emergency decision-making process of sudden oil shortages by means of the analysis of sudden oil shortage mechanism: According to the occurrence-occurrence mechanism,the most important work of emergency decision-making before emergent oil shortage is early warning and prevention.After the sudden oil shortage occurs,it is necessary to determine the corresponding contingency plan according to the shortage situation analysis and implement it quickly and reduce the loss.According to the Markov forecasting method and the Topsis method,the decision model of the emergency oil shortage contingency plan is constructed and The example verifies the validity of the model,It is suggested that the Markov forecasting method can predict the probability of sudden oil shortage in different stages of occurrence,development and burst.The oil contingency plan can be evaluated according to the selected cost and benefit.Finally,according to the evolution of sudden oil shortage and its emergency decision-making research,this paper puts forward the corresponding policy suggestions according to the existing problems in oil security risk and emergency oil shortage emergency management in China.