Research On Financing Risk Early Warning Of PPP Mode For Quasi-operating Infrastructure Projects

With the accelerated pace of urbanization, the demand for infrastructure projects is increasing day by day, the government’s financial pressure is also growing.With the introduction of the PPP model, not only to alleviate the shortage of funds the government pressure, and the social capital can be invested in infrastructure construction, but also improve the infrastructure supply capacity. However, under the mode of PPP quasi commercial infrastructure projects are large in scale, long construction period, large investment, many participants, complex contractual relationship, result in the process of project financing, many risk factors, risk degree is high, the effectiveness of the project financing risk management is the key to the success of the project financing.Therefore, under the PPP model to explore the quasi operational infrastructure project financing risk factors and how to carry on the assessment and early warning, it has very important theoretical and practical value for the study of PPP model in China.Based on the study of literature home and abroad, mainly studied the following contents:Firstly, the concept and characteristics of PPP model is introduced in this pape; Using the theory of public goods and project sales theory to classify the infrastructure project, clear the scope of the research object, and introduces the concept and characteristics of the research object of quasi commercial infrastructure projects in detail; At the same time, the financing risk and early warning theory was discussed.Secondly, through the method of literature and combining with the characteristics of quasi commercial infrastructure projects, identifiy 30 financing risk factors; On this basis, design the questionnaire, the questionnaire to have relevant work experience, 84 valid questionnaires were collected; Further analysis identified 20 PPP mode of financing risk factors of quasi operational infrastructure projects by using the mathematical statistics of the mean test, analysis of variance and correlation coefficient, at the same time, using the entropy value method of 20 key financial risk factors for weight and relative importance.Then, according to the principle of setting up early warning index system, established the PPP model under the quasi operational infrastructure project financing risk early warning index system; By combining the advantages of triangular fuzzy number and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, and build the integrated triangular fuzzy number and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of the PPP model quasi commercial infrastructure project financing risk early warning model; In order to proved the feasibility of the model, this paper selects the PPP project of Beijing metro line four for case analysis, analysis of the results demonstrates that the model is reasonable, effective and operational.Finally, the PPP mode of quasi commercial infrastructure project financing risk early warning results from the aspects of government departments, private enterprises, risk sharing mechanism, supervision and rectification mechanism to put forward the corresponding suggestions.