The Research Of Sharing The Risk In Quasi-operating Infrastructure Projects Under The PPP Mode

At present, infrastructure construction can not keep up the pace of rapiddevelopment of urbanization. Using PPP (Public Private Partnerships) model to attractsocial capital, can reduce the financial pressure on the government and can acceleratethe pace of infrastructure construction. However, due to the quasi-operational projectsunder PPP mode have these characteristics: high investment cost, long cycle, a smallreturn, complex participants, and in the perspective of interests: the Government paygreat Attention to public interest but the private sector attaches great importance toeconomic welfare, the risk of such projects often will be more bigger, harder to controlthan general construction projects. It will be more difficult to achieve a reasonablerisk-sharing. Often resulting in two situations: first, the project’s risk-sharingnegotiations generally takes a very long time, so that the cost of negotiating will be high;second, despite barely finish the negotiations, after which it can not fulfill the terms ofthe contrac. It give great obstacles to success of the project. Reasonable risk-sharingguarantee success of the project, there is an urgent need for effective and specificrisk-sharing approach.Paper carded40common risks of the quasi-operational projects under PPP modefrom14authoritative literatures. Then I used expert scoring method to sort theprobability of occurrence, the extent of damage and the extent of the impact of theserisks. Then I used ABC classification method to identify the30key risk factors, fivemajor risk factors and five secondary risk factors. Wish to provide a probably referenceof primary and secondary to the parties involved to in practice. Then use the tripartitecomplete information static game to analysis, resulting in: approval/delays risk, legaland regulatory system imperfect risk, and so on five in total which can be borned by thepublic sector alone; financing risks, construction cost overruns, etc.8in total, which canbe borned private sector alone; lack of income, changes in market demand ect.17risk intotal which need to work together to share. Then use AHP to do quantitative analysis toget specific risk-sharing proportion. Paper use one risk named "inflation risk" as anexample for analysis. The whole process is built on four risk-sharing principles: the onewho do the best in control risk should bear it; exposures must be limited. The returnsshould match the degree of risk; should have the willingness to take risks. I establish arisk-sharing evaluation system on the principle. Paper Combine the complete information static game analysis and Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP) method in hopethat I can combine the shared objective indicators and satisfaction together; combine thequalitative and quantitative analysis. Come to a reasonable result.