Based On The GM Study On Reasonable Scale Land Reserve Of The Small And Moderate Cities

Land reserve system, from the pilot to promote, has become an essential policy tools of real estate macroeconomic control. Current cities has established a relatively perfect land reserve mechanism. However, the small and medium-sized cities due to inadequate reserve fund, unsound supporting mechanism, and relatively backward land use concept, make it has the risks to confirm reasonably in terms of land reserve scale, either high financial capital pressure caused by large land reserve scale and inadequate finance, or poor market adjustment ability caused by insufficient land reserve scale and intense land supply. Therefore, studying and working out a land reserve scale rationality analysis forecast model has a practical significance to small and medium-sized urban land reserve work.To do the research of reasonably confirming the land reserve scale for small and medium-sized cities, this article is based on using the relative theory of domestic and foreign land reserve system and land reserve scale for reference. Take Nan’an city for example, by using grey GM (1,1) prediction model to find out the reasonable land reserve scale model, Nan’an city adopt two kinds of different factors to predict the land demand scale, one is population growth and the other one is market demand. On the basis of different predict result by rigid housing demands and investment demand, Nan’an city combined with no.162 document requirements proposed by the ministry of land and resources to draw up the land purchasing and storageplan, and analyze the rationality of Nan’an land reserve scale. The results of the study are as followings:(1)Nanan’s existing land reserve plan lack ofrationality. By empirical research, comprehensive comparison of land reserves prediction and the existing reserves data, and combining with the Nanan’s high ratio of financing loan in land reserve that is widespread forsmall and medium-sized cities, Nan’an city concluded that the land reserve scale is over large, financing occupation is too much and the risk is greater.(2) Reasonably determined the model for the small and medium-sized urban land reserve scale. With dual attributes of living and investment, commercial house adopt two kinds of different factors, one is population growth and the other one is market demand; use grey GM (1,1) prediction model and work out two prediction results as a upper and lower limit reference range of reasonable land reserve scale。 Through prediction and analysis results, the reasonable interval of nanan land reserve scale should be between 34.74 hectares and 57.92 hectares, among them, the size limit can be based on the requirements of the national real estate macroeconomic regulation and control policy make the appropriate adjustments.(3) According to the common problems of small and medium-sized cities, propose the suggestions to do the work of land reserve scale well and state the deficiency of this study.