Statistical Analysis Of Economic Effects Of Commercial And Trade Circulation Industry

As a complex industry which almost relate to mostly economic activities, commerce and trade circulation industry not only can promote the development of production, increase the employment and increase the consumption, but also can optimize industrial structure. However, some areas don’t realize their own characteristics. So they are blind to commerce and trade circulation industrial orientation which inevitably affect the development of regional economy, or even result in negative effect on the national economy. Therefore, it’s very important to make a correct assessment of economic effects of commerce and trade circulation industry so that give full play to its pilot role in regional economy and national economy.Based on this background, around the main line of economic effect of commerce and trade circulation industry, this paper makes the empirical analysis of its impact on the national economic growth and its regional variations on the following two aspects:longitudinal and transverse. First, this paper quantifies and analyzes the comprehensive development level of commerce and trade circulation industry in China and regional and takes this result as explanatory variables in next empirical analysis section. After that, this paper uses time-varying parameter state space model to analyze its economic effects from the perspective of overall. Finally, in order to prove whether exist significant difference in different areas for its impact on the economic growth, this paper combines with the panel data model and cluster analysis with panel data of each 30 provinces and municipalities of China to further analysis. Then the above results can provide reference for having a correct understanding of regional circulation industry orientation, drawing up industrial policies with its own characteristics by the local government.The study found that:(1) At present, comprehensive development level of circulation industry has significantly increasing trend, specifically in its output growth, its ability to absorb employment, the level of circulation modernization and infrastructure construction. Therefore, the circulation industry has great development potential and space, which can become the leading industry in China to promote economic growth. However, due to the different conditions of development, resource endowments and other factors, development of regional circulation industry is very unbalanced. In general, the level of development of circulation industry in the eastern part is generally higher than it in the central and western regions. That said, the development level of circulation industry to a certain extent is closely related to the regional economic development level and geographical locations.(2) Compared to the others, its output effect is the most significant, which is held between 0.232-0.238 and have a significant time-varying. But after 2007, the trend of its output effect remains stable. So if it’s unable to form new innovations, its output effect will can’t be further improved. However employment effect of circulation industry which is held between 0.232-0.238 is weaker than its output effect. Especially in recent years, the employment effect of circulation industry is significantly expanded, which shows the great development potential of circulation industry. In addition, the industrial structure optimization effect of circulation industry is more remarkable, which is held between 0.46-0.52 and also have obvious time-varying characteristics. But the trend of its industrial structure optimization effect gradually remains stable after 2003. So we should optimize the internal structure of circulation industry to improve its industrial structure optimization effect.(3) The development of commerce and trade circulation industry is an important driver for regional economic growth, but there are significant regional differences in the extent of its impact on the regional economy. And this difference is mainly affected by the development of regional economic:an area whose economy is more developed, its output effect is smaller. Meanwhile, this difference is also associated with the development level of circulation industry and its positioning. Therefore, different regions should combine with its own characteristics to develop its circulation industry. Only in this way can give full play to the guiding function of circulation industry in regional economic.