Effects Of Rising Retirement Age On Pension Insurance Fund

Pension issue relates to the interests of the individual and social stability, which is attached much attention in the world. In recent years,*with the growing of the aged population, this problem also become the focus of the government and the public in China. The coverage growth of pension insurance fund collection is declining and pension expenditure is increasing gradually. The practice of the developed countries shows that delaying the retirement age can balance the revenue and expenditure of pension insurance fund. And the government is considering the policy of delay the retirement age. Thus this paper will study the subject by theoretically and empirically way that if increasing the retirement age can solve the problem of pension insurance fund gap effectively. The research is divided into six parts.The first part will introduce the background of the study, the content and the innovation. The second part will describe and summary literatures about domestic and international. The third part will analyze the insurance and operating condition of the pension insurance fund and the development of aging population. Further, the mechanism that is effect of rising the retirement age on the pension insurance fund will be analysis theoretically. In the fourth part, the model is established which used to measuring the pension insurance fund gap and the result of 1990-2013 is obtained with data. Then the pension insurance fund gap of 2014-2025 can be forecasted. The fifth part, when after delaying the retirement age, the pension insurance fund gap of 2014-2025 will be measured. In the last part, it will come to the conclusion with comparing quantity of the pension insurance fund gap whether the policy of delaying the retirement age is implemented.And the results of this paper show that after the year of 2020, the income of pension insurance fund will less than expenses. However, it will increase the unemployment rate if increasing the retirement age for 5 years. For example there will be 8% unemployment rate in 2014 when we delay the retirement age. Nevertheless, the income of pension insurance fund will increase if the retirement age is suspended, and expenses will reduce meanwhile. To 2025, the cumulative balance will increase 6.4 thousand billion yuan than not delaying the retirement age. It can be seen that it is effective of the policy of delaying the retirement age to reduce the pension insurance fund gap. However, at last we also found that there is timeliness of the effect of delayed retirement on the pension funds.