Research Of Village-Level Debt Risk In New Period

The problems about agriculture, rural areas, farmers are important issues related to China’s economic development, social stability. However, in China’s rural areas, village-level debt is a significant problem since the late 1990s. From 1999, the general office of the State started to clean the village-debt. But the result is unsatisfied, the scale of the village-level debt is still showing a rising trend in most regions. The problem of village-level debt is not only about the economic but also about the society. The most of the existing research investigated the village-level debt problem from the perspective of political system by qualitative methods. The village-level debt in China has existed for a long time, we do not know whether the village-level debt today is consistent with the debt 20 years ago. If they are different, can we use the same method to solve the problem of village-level debt. The village debt scale is still huge, so how about the risk of village debt? These questions need further studied.With these questions, the author surveyed and interviewed in L County\S County\B County in Jiangsu Province to have a clearer understanding about the problem of the village-level debt. Furthermore, the author tries to explore the methods for the village-level debt governance. The article mainly launches from the following three aspects:Part 1:New features of the village-level debt in new periodThe author analyses the village-level debt in new period by comparing with the past from the aspect about the scale\the structure\the sources and the deadline. In a nutshell, the scale of village-level debt is still rising, but the extent of the increase is slower. In the aspect of the village-level debt structure, the past village-level debt is focused on establishing on collective enterprises, achieving the education standards and paying the taxes. Today, setting up the public welfare becomes the main part. In the aspect of the village-level debt sources, the non-interest debt takes a most part of the village-level debt. At the same time, the debt loaned from the formal financial institutions is dropping, higher than bank interest loans also declined. The long-term debt of more than 3 years is also rising. In the form of debt, the government is no longer the dominant factor, the villagers is sweet instead of bitter.Part 2:The identification of the village-level debtThis paper combines the theory and the rural reality, then structures the index system by studying the local government debt risk. The index system mainly includes the debt burden ratio, debt rate and so on. Then the author constructs the model of the village-level debt risk by using the factor analysis. In addition, the author judges the village-level debt risk in the sample of S County and B County.Part 3:Effects on the supply of public goods to the village-level debt riskAccording to the above analysis, the author concludes the supply of public goods as the main factor to village-level debt risk. Then the author investigates the effects on the supply of public goods to the village-level debt risk by using the multiple regression analysis. The conclusions is the government subsidies, forced coefficient, the income ratio, the villages’ participation as well as the village population all have significant effect on the village-level debt risk. The effect of audit rate and the villages’ satisfaction on village-level debt risk is not significant.Overall, the author put up several suggestions about weaken the village-level debt risk: improving the village-level debt structure in the new period, strengthening the construction of village-level debt risk warning system, optimizing the supply of rural public goods, strengthening the supervision to the village organization, improving the villagers’ participation in the supply of public goods in rural China’s.