| Since reform and opening up, the society and economy in China has developed rapidly and gained great accomplishments. Dalian, as the pioneer city of the three northeast provinces in economy, making full use of its own features and advantageous resources, strived to develop the second industry and thus kept high growth rate in economy in the past few years. The traditional economic growth pattern can cumulate great wealth in short time, while at the same time it can also shorten the resources, pollute the environment, which is not conductive to the sustainable development of the whole city. Currently, the urban sustainable development problem is put forward as the ecology problems, especially the pollution problems are getting more serious. How to lead the human play the dominant role well among society, economy and nature, balance the relationship between economic growth, resources exploitation and environment protection, realize sustainable development are big problems that the we have to face.This paper firstly summaries the previous research achievements on the issue of sustainable development, and then introduces the theory of the sustainable development and system dynamics. Based on that, subdivides the factors affecting Dalian’s sustainable development into five subsystems:economy, population, water resources, environment, science&education, clarifies relationships between different indicators, draws the causal loop diagram and the stock and flow diagram and constructs a system dynamic model according to the data 2003-2013 of Dalian Statistics Yearbook. Then makes prediction for 2014-2020 Dalian sustainable development status, and makes a comparison between the prediction values and the plan values. Based on the above research, change parameters’values and get four kinds of development scenarios, analyze and make conclusions.There are six parts in this paper:The first part is introduction. This part introduces the research context and then put forward to the structure, innovation points and weaknesses of this paper.The second part is literature review. Go through both the foreign and domestic researches, and find relevant possible further research directions for this paper.The third part is theory preparation. That is for both the concept of sustainable development and system dynamics.The fourth part is design for the Dalian’s sustainable development. Divided the influence factors into five subsystems, including economy, population, water resources, environment, science&education. Analyze the current status of the five subsystems and then select proper indicators to build the evaluation system of Dalian’s sustainable development.The fifth part is to build the SD model. Draw the causal loop diagram and stock and flow diagram to reflect the relationships between different variables directly. Build equations and make improvements for the model. Finally make predictions and make different developing plans.The following results have been found as follows:In the trend of current development pattern, Dalian will still have high economy growth rate and secondary industry will always in dominant position; The need of water resources will increase by year and industrial water consumption will be the main causes leading to water consumption:Compared all the developing plan, the coordinated development scenario is the optimal. It can not only optimize the industry structure, but can accelerate the process of urbanization, relieve the impact of aging phenomenon, and reduce the use of water resources, lighten the burden of environment and make contribution to the sustainable development of Dalian.There are three innovation points in this paper:firstly, introduce the science&education subsystem to the whole system, broaden the research scope of sustainable development to some extent. Secondly, emphasize more on internal relationships and distinctions between different variables. Thirdly, the system dynamics and statistics method are combined to construct the model. |
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