Nantong City Based On System Dynamics Study On Sustainable Development

From the time that the definition of sustainable development was clearly proposed by the WEDE, Sustainable development, as a new destination and development pattern, has been widely accepted all over the world. As a whole, economics, population, resources and environment are the key factors to sustainable development, and how to deal with the four factors has become the study focus, the strategic mission urgently to be solved. This thesis, centering on the sustainable development theory, applying system dynamics methodology, explores the sustainable development outlet. Thus, this thesis, giving advice to the sustainable development strategy of Nantong and twelfth five-year plan, possesses realistic significance for the sustainable development of Nantong.This thesis, summarizes the sustainable development theory and system dynamics, introducing system dynamics, sustainable development and status quo home and abroad. Secondly, this thesis analyzed the current situation of economics, population, resources and environment in Nantong, and came to the conclusion that some reasons existing in the sustainable development of Nantong. Besides, on the base of society economics and environment status, taking example by the mature sustainable development indexes home and abroad, this thesis builds up the sustainable development indexes system of Nantong. Thirdly, applying system dynamics, this thesis, analyzes the cause-and-effect relationship of regional sustainable development and interact of variable quantity in the subsystems. Then, this thesis chose 6 state variables,12 rate variables,31 auxiliary variables and 15 constants, and set up the Nantong sustainable development simulation model from economics, population, resources and environment. And after the test of effectiveness and sensitivity of model, the result revealed that the absolute error between simulation value and the history value exceeded no more than 5%, demonstrating that the model has a strong veracity and reliability. Last, this thesis devised 4 policy projects to conduct analogue simulation, comparing the desired value of the twelfth five-year plan, and got the optimal case. Moreover, this thesis put forward 6 policy suggestions: (1) optimize the second industry, develop service sector, accelerate economic growth pattern (2) intensify the environmental protection, boost the returns on environmental investment (3) increase science and technology, advance autonomy research and development ability, adjust and optimize the consumption structure of industry energy (4) put the main pollutant gross control policy into force, ensure the expect goal of the twelfth five-year plan (5) enhance the pollution prevention of industry three wastes, advance the city environment quality (6) practice cleaner production, develop circular economy and low carbon economy vigorously.