The Study Of Sustainable Economic Development Capacity In Zhejiang Province Based On System Dynamics

Nearly 20 years, with the rapid economic development，Zhejiang Province continues tohave an unavoidable problem of the natural resources shortage。Such as per capita consumption offresh water, arable land, forest cover and grassland resource in the province are all less thanone-sixth of the world average. Collapse due to floods, drought, mudslides, earthquakes and othernatural disasters annually caused by more than 100 billion yuan of direct economic losses. Nowthe contradictions between economic development and environmental pollution are increasinglyserious. Therefore,it is theoretical and practical for Zhejiang Province to search for scientificand effective management ideas to solve the shortage of resources and the contradictions betweenenvironmental pollution and economic development .Be based on theory of sustainable development at home and abroad , in this article we clearlyset out the overall objective for Zhejiang Province to achieve sustainable development; Secondly ,refering to the domestic and foreign research on the sustainable development index selection andconsidering of the reality of economic development and resources shortage in Zhejiang Province,the article divides the total sustainable development system into six submodule of demographic,economic, resource, environment, science and education, then it constructs a four- hierarchysystem consisting of target , system, status, and variable. Also the paper demonstrates of thefeasibility of system dynamics on system simulation research of sustainable development.Thirdly，We choose System Dynamics method and use simulation software Vensim PLE toanalyze the feedback relationships of the related variables which affect the sustainabledevelopment system. Then we establish a system dynamic simulation model of six subsystemsand design the causal flow and commission dynamic flow graph for sustainable development.And then, using 2000 as the base period, we simulate and analyze the Zhejiang Province·sprovincial GDP, losses resulting from environmental pollution on the economic value, nationalcomprehensive quality, influence of science and technology’s investment on economicdevelopment and resource shortage in 15 years under the combination of natural tendency andcontrol policy. Finally, we also presented the regulation and policy about Zhejiang province’spopulation control, resource utilization, technological innovation, environmental protection andsocio-economic development policies according to the results of the analysis.There are some new ideas for this article. On one hand, for it is difficult to directly resolvethe ability system of sustainable development through the model for Zhejiang Province, weintroduce the simulation tools to build causal feedback flow graphs and verify its legitimacy and effectiveness of the feedback model; In addition, we change the complex systems to sixsubsystems, thereby reducing the level variables，and balance each subsystem so that to achievethe total system balance.Due to the limited research capacity, this article focuses on the effect of the industrial addedvalue on provincial GDP, which may affect the research results. What·s more, it doesn·taccurately test the coupling degree of internal structure and the actual situation of the systemdynamics model. And so does the estimation of parameters.