The Financial Crisis、Export Trade And Total Factor Productivity

The effect of international trade on a country’s economic growth has been one of the most important topics in trade economics,combined with China’s rapid economic development in recent years, the issue has become one of the hottest topics in the study of China’s economy. Studies on the topic categories although many, but these studies mainly focus on the direct effect on economic growth in the trade. For export, domestic researches are more concerned about how much foreign exchange income has brought to our country, and how to promote the growth of GDP, which is concerned with the effect of total factor productivity growth.In this paper, we have chosen to study the relative neglect of the angle of view, that is, the export to the growth rate of the total factor to investigate the effect of export on the economic impact of another important significance. This paper is not only limited to this, as one of the innovation points of this paper is to join the financial crisis this time variable, to investigate the relationship between the export trade and the productivity of the financial crisis. As we all know, with the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008, China’s export trade suffered a serious blow. In particular, China’s industrial sector, as the representative of the real economy, the impact of the financial crisis makes the industrial sector, whether it is the absolute amount of exports or exports have been declining. The purpose of this paper is to reveal the changing trend of total factor productivity of China’s industrial sectors before and after the financial crisis, so as to further investigate how the change in export trade is the impact on the industry’s productivity, and draw the relevant conclusions and give policy recommendations. This paper examines the relationship between export trade and total factor productivity from a relative perspective.In theory,this dissertation analyzes the mechanism of export and productivity based on the trade theory and literature.The three mechanisms are scale economics effect,technology spillover effect and resource reallocation effect. On the basis of this, this paper describes the three major mechanisms of export impact productivity from three aspects:export and industry scale, export and technology spillovers, and export and factor replacement. For export scale economy effect, export trade can bring about the static scale economy effect, but also can bring about the dynamic scale economy effect -- "learning by doing" effect. This paper mainly analyzes the relationship between export trade and scale economy by using the model of monopolistic competition. The study found that the export trade through the expansion of the size of the market, so as to obtain the internal scale economic effect, promote the growth of productivity. For technology spillover effect, this paper draws on the Barro and Sala-i-Martin (1997) model, taking into account the decision-making process of leading industry and technology, the conclusion is: technology leading industry to produce new products need to increase R&D investment, technology to catch up with the technology industry, the technology spillover. Technology spillover effect is mainly reflected in the export in the product imitation and reverse engineering technology to bring about the promotion of productivity. The replacement effect of the elements is mainly reflected in the factors of the industry from the low efficiency of the non export industries to the higher productivity of the industry. In this paper, the Melitz model is used to analyze the effect of the factor allocation, and the effect of the factor market distortion on the distribution of elements is also pointed out.In empirical research, this paper first according to the elements of the intensity, the industry is divided into three categories:labor intensive industries, capital intensive industries and technology intensive industries. Because this paper will study the change of total factor productivity in the industry, it is necessary to estimate the total factor productivity of the industry. Here using the Solow residual method, combined with the output data of 31 industrial, three industry total factor productivity index trend chart. In the first part of the empirical test, the three mechanisms of export trade impact productivity are tested by constructing the overall regression model, and the interaction terms of export trade and scale economy, technology spillovers and factors reset. The empirical results show that the effects of scale economy effect on productivity are obvious, and there is no substantial change before and after the financial crisis, the export technology spillover effect is not obvious, and the financial crisis can be improved. The main reason may be that our domestic regional market segmentation, the imperfect production factor market and factor price distortion caused by the production factors can not achieve optimal allocation. The second part of the empirical research is to model the three major industries, the same point and the difference between the three major industries, the same point and vertical comparison.In a word, this paper makes a detailed discussion on the relationship between export trade and productivity in two aspects:theoretical analysis and empirical test, and takes into account the impact of the financial crisis. It will help us to understand the important role of export to China’s economic growth from the perspective of productivity. This paper also gives the relevant policy recommendations from the perspective of how to get more export interests from the financial crisis!...