Research On Export Dynamics Of Chinese Enterprises Under The Background Of Financial Crisis

Since China entered the WTO in 2001,the import and export have developed rapidly.Compared with 2002,the total import and export of goods in China increased by about 5.6 times in 2017.However,after the financial crisis in 2008,the growth rate of export in China slowed down obviously.According to statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics,by 2009,the growth rate of export was about-16%.The global financial crisis,which was triggered by the US subprime mortgage crisis,severely impacted the export volume of Chinese firms.However,the existing academic literature on export dynamics rarely deals with the impact of external shocks such as the financial crisis on export dynamics.In view of this,under the background of the financial crisis,based on China's customs data and China's industrial enterprises data from 2005 to 2011,this paper analyzes the export dynamics of Chinese company and its influencing factors by using the Difference in Difference-Propensity Score Matching method(PSM-DID),in addition,with a view to making some marginal contributions to the relevant research on export dynamics.The main contents of this paper are as follows:First of all,this paper sorts out and summarizes the relevant theories and existing literatures at home and abroad from the aspects of heterogeneous firms trade theory,multi-product enterprise export theory,firms' product export conversion theory,multi-product enterprise export dynamics,export dynamics influencing factors,and the impact of the financial crisis on the export of Chinese enterprises.Thus,we can determine the specific research direction and method based on the availability of data and the feasibility of research methods.Secondly,this paper analyzes the export dynamics of Chinese enterprises and finds that:(1)In the dimensions of frims and products,the largest proportion in quantity is continued enterprises and continued products,followed by new firms and new products,and finally exit enterprises and exit products;(2)After the financial crisis in 2008,the number and export value of new enterprises and new products have dropped sharply;Accordingly,the number and export value of exiting company and exiting products have increased significantly.(3)80%of new enterprises and 90%of new products in t-1 were converted into continued products in t.Further,by comparing the results of three different dimensions of frim-product,frim-destination and frim-product-destination,it is found that:(1)After the financial crisis in 2008,the newly-built trade relations in different dimensions generally showed a downward trend,and the newly-built enterprises showed a significant decline in different dimensions;(2)The trade relationship of sustained export shows an upward trend in different dimensions,especially after the financial crisis.(3)The trade relations reduced in different dimensions all show a fluctuating upward trend,especially when the financial crisis broke out in 2008,the growth rate accelerated,and the smaller the angle of investigation,the larger the proportion of reduction;(4)No matter the increase or decrease of trade relations in different dimensions,sustained export enterprises play a vital role in it,accounting for the largest proportion.In terms of export strategy,through a simple Logit model,it is found that enterprises have core product strategy and top destination strategy,and tend to give up fringe products and relatively unimportant destinations.Thirdly,in order to identify the causal relationship between the financial crisis and the export dynamics of Chinese enterprises and further explore the operation mechanism behind the above observation results,the article uses the double difference method based on the propensity score matching method(PSM-DID)to introduce the 2008 financial crisis into the model as an exogenous shock,and takes Chinese enterprises in the destination market including the United States as the treatment group and Chinese enter:prises in the destination market including the European Union as the control group to conduct empirical analysis.The results show that the financial crisis has led to a drop of about 5%in the export volume of Chinese enterprises,and has also reduced the degree of diversification of Chinese enterprises' export products.In order to further verify the robustness of the conclusion,this paper adopts the methods of replacing the core explanatory variables and placebo test,respectively,and finds that the above results are robust.Finally,based on the above research conclusions,combined with the actual situation of international trade development in recent years,the corresponding policy recommendations are put forward,and the possible research directions in the future are prospected.