The Study Of The Impact Of Macroeconomic Indicators To The Average Wage

Since the reform and opening up, economic achievements are remarkable. But we should also see:on one hand, the continuous increase in macroeconomic indicators; on the other hand, the growth of wages is slow; Overall, economic development and the growth of wages is not balanced and does not meet the requirements of the development. The party’s 18 report to raise the per capita income as the target was added to our core development strategy. To ensure that the residents enjoy national development results, which require in-depth on the impact of increases in wages macroeconomic factors explored, and constantly improve wages growth mechanism, and ultimately to provide policy what support for the realization of a well-off society.This paper reviews the literature on the wages of china and foreign countries, analyzes the factors that influence on research methods and wage levels, and finds that selecting indicators is subjective,factors of study is single, the model is simple, and the effect of fitting is poor. The author collected in previous studies of the potential impact of a number of indicators of the premise, and introduce the indicators screening system, the results is that the choice of indicators is objective and the research factor is diverse; In addition,this paper selected the two dimensions of time and panel data to model, and compared with fitting and predictive effect at different times and regions, to study China’s macroeconomic indicators affect wages theory, this paper first stated on a number of macroeconomic indicators and the process of selection theory, combined with our existing macroeconomic data, the 30 macroeconomic indicators which are the potential impact factors on the wages were first screened by variance inflation factor multi-collinearity based approach, leaving no multi-collinearity of 12 macroeconomic indicators, and deleted 18 indicators which have multi-collinearity. After that, the paper screened the 12 indicators secondly which do not have multi-collinearity, so 6 macroeconomic indicators were screened and they have significantly effect on wages, they are the per capita, government spending, consumer prices index, total foreign direct investment, the registered urban unemployment rate, urban population.Secondly, based on the statements and the National Bureau of Statistics sample selection, this paper extracted East Midwest regions (eastern representative:Beijing, Shandong, Shanghai, Hainan, Liaoning; middle:Shanxi, Anhui, Hunan; West: Guangxi, Sichuan, Gansu, Inner Mongolia), while ignored the state-owned units, urban collective units and other units of internal differences, select the logarithmic first difference of the average wage for urban workers after the index as the dependent variable, select a logarithmic index of GDP per capita after the first difference, local fiscal expenditure index, CPI, foreign direct investment total index, the registered urban unemployment rate index, the urban population index as an explanation Variables in the NBS website and China Economic Information Network Database Download 1990-2013 year of 12 provinces and macroeconomic indicators annual data, panel data model based on correlation analysis on the construction of the stationary test, with test judgment is becoming After coefficient model, and then test to determine the city fixed effects model, the establishment of a two-point individual variable coefficient panel fixed effect model. And the results of empirical analysis conducted a detailed analysis, presentation and forecasting. Dig out the factors that influence the growth of wages, in particular for the level of development of regional gap, expenditure imbalance, living goods supply and demand imbalance, different inputs affect the results of the investment, China’s labor force is the uneven distribution of students, development of urbanization and fast or slow influence government policy factors.Finally, considering China’s national conditions, based on the results of empirical and theoretical analysis, the author proposes specific policy recommendations:Firstly, free movement of labor to clear the channel, set up labor personnel employment platform, the rule of law in the labor market laws, government-led social security system and market regulation function of government wage regulation mechanism combining guide; and second, to expand space education expenditure of funds, increase investment in human capital, optimize the structure of education and training and so improve the overall strength of the employed persons. Third, to build closer economic development model system of consultations wages and collective wage mechanism, set a reasonable wage guidelines and minimum wage dynamic adjustment of standards, give full play to the guiding role of the market economy;By considering the basis of indicators screening and panel models in different time and different regions, the average wage index in 12 provinces were fitted discovery point to consider individual dual fixed effect change fitting and predictive ability of the model coefficients, which is a little innovation of this paper. But the article did not fit the eastern Midwest panels were established in different models comparative study, and therefore did not draw the most suitable for China’s central and western regions of the three panels fitting method, which is inadequate for this article.