Study Of The Potential Trade On Agricultural Products Between China And Japan Based On The Perspective Of FTA

With development and reconstruction of the world economic, multilateral trade negotiations drag down the progress of individual country. Establishing bilateral free trade agreement has become one of the necessary means for many countries to develop trade.China and Japan as two big countries in Asia Pacific region have an important influence in the world. The bilateral economic and trade relations is a key linking in the process of the free trade area of the Asia Pacific. Agricultural product in the negotiations is both important and difficult areas for Japan. Trade of agricultural product is an important topic in the study of the Sino Japanese bilateral trade negotiations.The paper starts with status and structure of agricultural product of China and Japan using the method of statistical analysis. By calculating the relevant trade indexes such as TCD, G-L, TCI, and TSC, the paper quantitatively confirms that the relationship of agricultural trade between China and Japan is both competitive and complementary.Based on the recent status of the negotiations on the FTA and all the hinder, the paper points out the necessity of establishing a free trade zone from Chinese, Japan, East Asia viewpoint.Then, this paper based on the theory of Customs Union analysis the reduction of tariffs on economic effect and the welfare effect, to provide theoretical support for further empirical analysis.Thirdly, based on the revised Trade Gravity model the paper analyzed factors influencing agriculture trade between China and Japan using 2004-2014 agricultural product trade data. The results show that the free trade agreement tariff reduction has a positive impact on the trade of agricultural products. In addition, the gravity model to estimate the trade potential between Chinese and Japan, the results showed that the total trade potential Chinese and Japanese agricultural products become saturated, but in recent years has capacity. According to the empirical regression method tariffs on agricultural products reduced model was used to simulate the predicted to establish Japan FTA Japan agricultural potential, results show that the FTA induce the agricultural trade between the two countries with greater potential, verifying the necessity of promoting FTA negotiation between China and Japan.Last but not least, based on the previous research and analysis of the conclusion of this paper, from the perspective of establishing a free trade agreement, this paper gives some suggestions to promote the negotiation process. That is, enhancing the quality of agricultural products and supervision to break through the TBT of Japan; taking into account other East Asian economic cooperation mechanism using the advantages of multilateral negotiations promote China-Japan FTA negotiations.