Research On The Co-evolution Of Electronic Commerce And Express Delivery Industry

With the advent of information age, online shopping has become an indispensable part of people’s daily life. In recent years, the rapid development of electronic commerce in China has become a new driving force for economic growth. The rapid development of e-commerce has led to the growth spurt in express delivery industries’ volume of business, in 2014, the express delivery industries’ volume of business in China surpassed the United States, became the world’s first. The Chinese government attaches great importance to the development of electronic commerce, in May 2015, the State Council issued opinions on accelerating the development of electronic commerce to speed up the development of new economic power. In October of the same year, the State Council issued a number of opinions on promoting the development of express delivery industry, creating a favorable external environment for the establishment of express delivery service system in our country.The research on the relationship between e-commerce and express delivery industry has caused the common attention of academia. But most of the existing studies are from the qualitative point of view, tend to elaborate the status quo, find the problems and put forward the countermeasures and suggestions. The rare quantitative studies have certain disadvantages in data selection, choice of research methods and validation of model. The prediction of the future development of e-commerce and express delivery industry is more limited. For this reason, it is necessary to analyze the relationship between e-commerce and express delivery industry from the empirical point of view, and forecast the future development of China’s e-commerce and express delivery industry based on the prediction model, to provide reference for the collaborative development of e-commerce and express delivery industry in China.The paper explains the concept of electronic commerce and express delivery from different views, makes the characteristics of e-commerce and express delivery clear. By analyzing the macro environment of e-commerce development and interact of e-commerce and express delivery industry, learns about the current situation of both industries in China. Based on the symbiosis theory and co-evolution theory, analyzes the condition, path and stage characteristics of co-evolution between e-commerce and express delivery industry in China, it is concluded that China’s e-commerce and express delivery industry belongs to the parasitic interdependent relationship. By selecting the relevant data of electronic commerce enterprises’ operating income and express delivery industries’ volume of business in China from 1997 to 2014, empirical research is used to analyze the relationship of both. Based on correlation analysis of SPSS software, the conclusion is drawn that China’s e-commerce and express delivery industry has a synergistic relationship. By means of ADF unit root test and co-integration test, the co-integration equation between e-commerce and express delivery industry is obtained, and the long-term co-integration relationship between them is verified. The ARIMA model is applied to predict the electronic commerce enterprises’ operating income and express delivery industries’ volume of business in China from 2016 to 2018. The results show that, in the next three years, China’s electronic commerce enterprises’ operating income and express delivery industries’ volume of business will continue to maintain growth trend. Improving the express delivery service quality, enhancing e-commerce enterprise brand image, establishing information sharing platform of e-commerce and express delivery industry and the interest allocation mechanism are presented for promoting the coordinated development between electronic commerce and express delivery industry.The contribution of this paper is to enrich the theoretical research on the relationship between e-commerce and express delivery industry, the prediction on the future development of e-commerce and express delivery industry based on ARIMA model provides reference for relevant enterprises to make decisions, research on the collaborative development strategy of China’s e-commerce and express delivery industry provides reference for the win-win development of both. The study has certain theoretical value and practical guiding significance.