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Research On The Investment Risk Assessment Of Constructive Project

Posted on:2017-03-02Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:M W SongFull Text:PDF
GTID:2309330482495826Subject:Industrial engineering
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
With the continuous deepening of China’s economic development and urbanization, the majority of large and medium cities take urban rail transit construction as transport infrastructure development goals. A city’s economic development is inseparable from its transportation system, whose economic development provides the material basis for the public transportation system,meanwhile urban transport systems provide for the region’s economic development support in turn, for that the economic development and rail traffic system are indispensable and complementary. Since the rail transit project has several features,such as huge investment, long period of construction and payback, low-level of direct economic benefits, which not only increase the government’s financial burden, but also affect the investors’ investment pace. To date, creating a good investment environment for the construction of urban rail transit project, reducing investment risks for investors, gaining the revenue on investment projects, and accelerating the construction speed of the project, which are all the research highlights..In this paper, a WT rail transit project case is studied. An investment risk evaluation model was built based on the characteristics of rail transit project, and the model was calculated using fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP). The solutions are given according to the evaluation, which on one hand can provide decision making for the project investors to improve the success rate of project venture capital,on the other hand guarantee the project operating well to solve the passenger transport function shortage problem sets of H Railway Station.Firstly, the investment risk management theory and related research is studied to analyze WT rail transit project investment risk. The risk decomposition and brainstorming method are combined to determine the initial value of the index system,and using questionnaires investigation and expert scoring method to select the indexes. Then the investment risk assessment system of WT rail projects is given,which includes five-level indexes and 17 secondary indexes. According to the characteristics of WT rail transit project investment risk, the indexes are evaluated using fuzzy AHP, then expert scoring method is used to get the weight score of each index, and each secondary index is ranked based on their scores. The evaluation results are consistent with the project’s real status, suggesting its effectiveness of the evaluation model. Finally, the risk evade measures are came up for five risk aspects(political risk, economic risk, natural risk, financing risk and construction risk) based on the evaluation results, which adds guidance for real projects.
Keywords/Search Tags:WT rail transit project, investment risk, evaluation index system, fuzzy analytic, hierarchy process
PDF Full Text Request
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