Study On Spatio-temporal Evolution And Influencing Factors Of Residential Land Prices In Chengdu-Chongqing Urban Agglomeration At The County Level

China is in the process of rapid urbanization at present.The agglomeration degree of urban population is increasing,and the demand for residential land becomes increasinglyvigorous.Meanwhile,the limited land area and the diversity of land use aggravate the scarcity of the land economic supply.Under the contradiction between supply and demand,the price of residential land is increasing in our cities,while the residential land price also affects the quality of housing and the efficiency of urban land use.With the development of urban belt and urban agglomeration,study on the land price of a city separately has been unable to meet the requirements of regional coordinated development.Therefore,it is of great significance to explore the characteristics of the spatio-temporal evolution of the residential land price in urban agglomeration,and to reveal the influence and dynamic change of the influencing factors.This paper,based on the residential land prices of Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration in 2008,2012 and 2015 at the county level,analysised the spatialtemporal evolution of residential land prices from the dimension of space-time,and adopted the spatial lag model to measure the influence power anddynamic changes of the influencing factors.Finally,based on the temporal-spatial evolution laws of the residential land price and analysis results of influencing factors,analyzed the future trend of residential land price spatial pattern in Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration.Conclusions are as follows:(1)From 2008 to 2015,the residential land prices in Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomerations at the county gradually increased,and the differences of residential land price gradually expanded among cities.The agglomeration degree of residential land prices experienced a " increased " first and then "decline".Besides,the primacy degree of residential land price system gradually declined.During the study period,the change in residential land prices experienced a process from relatively fast to relatively stable.(2)The spatial pattern of residential land prices in Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration was changed from a “dot-like” pattern with Chengdu and Chongqing as the dual cores to a “dot-axis” pattern with Chengdu and Chongqing as the dual cores and the axis of “Chengdu-Chongqing Development Spindle”.During the study period,the residential land prices in districts of “Chengdu-Chongqing development spindle” and the “riverside urban belts” in Chongqing rose relatively fastest.Meanwhile,the residential land price of counties in the south of the Shizhong District of Leshan City which belongs to “Chengdu-Deyang-Mianyang-Leshan urban belt” has experienced the relatively fastest decline.(3)The price of residential land in Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration at the country level showed a strong spatial autocorrelation in the entire study area,but the degree of spatial agglomeration decreased gradually.The types of spatial agglomeration of residential land price inclued "H-H" type area,"H-L" type area,"L-L" type area,of which "L-L" type area of aggregation was the most significant.(4)Population density,investment in real estate development,population mobility,urban per capital disposable income were the main influencing factors of the residential land price at the county level.From 2008 to 2015,the residential land price has changed from a "real estate development investment" oriented type to a "population density" oriented type,and the influence power of population density on the residential land price in the county level still showed an increasing trend.(5)According to the spatio-temporal evolution of the residential land price in Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration at the country and the analysis of the influencing factors,the trend of residential land prices was divided into low-speed growth type,medium-speed growth I type,medium-speed growth II type,rapid growth I type,rapid growth II type and high-growth type,as well as proposed the spatial pattern trends of future residential land prices in different types of areas.