The Research On Express Delivery Business Forecast And Connection Spot Location Problems

As an emerging industry in our country, the express industry is developing rapidly, from 2010 to 2013, China’s express delivery volume increased from 2.34 billion to 9.2 billion and the annual growth rate as high as 40%; In 2014, our countries’courier service enterprises’portfolio completed 13.96 billion in total, as the first in the world, the business income completed 204.54 billion RMB and increased 41.9% on year-on-year basis.There are still many problems exist in express industry in spite of the rapid development, for instance, the high business cost, the low economic benefit, the low service quality, the low customer satisfaction and so on, which is bound to affect the express industry long-term development especially under the background of the rapid growth of express delivery business. Therefore, in this paper, I will analyze how to improve the service quality and customer satisfaction from the following two points: macro express forecasts and microscopic point analysis.Firstly, this paper constructs a prediction model to make a forecast for the express delivery business, which makes the first forecast for the polynomial regression prediction method and thrice index smoothing forecasting method, and the second forecast for index regression prediction method and grey forecasting method, based on the Shapley combination forecast. Comparing with the results of two options to select the higher one in forecast precision as the predicting outcome. Secondly, building a site selection model to choose the location of the express connection point. The model includes three following parts:first, making the clustering analysis on the customer points address-data by using improved k-means arithmetic; Second, getting the initial connection point of each type of data clustering by using gravity method; Third, determining the optimal connection spot through frequency analysis and parking difficulty level analysis. Finally, to verify the two models above through empirical analysis, first of all, making a prediction for the express delivery business of Zhejiang province in the next three years; Then, making use of the truthful data in a certain time and one period which provided by a courier company when it is in some region of Hangzhou, to determine the optimal connection spot location of this area through the connection spot location model.