A Study On The Rationality Of Urban Residential Housing Price

Since the implementation of the urban housing system reform in China,the real estate industry has achieved rapid development and brought many problems,such as:the rapid expansion of the real estate market,the real estate industry has occupied too much money,a large number of commercial housing vacant,destocking pressure,real estate hasn't been coordinated with economical development,and so on,many of the above problems are caused by the irrational urban residential housing prices(the following is simply referred to as "housing prices").Therefore,how to evaluate the reasonableness of urban housing prices is particularly urgent.This paper sorts out the research results of domestic and foreign urban housing prices,and points out the current biases in excessive emphasis on housing commodity,real estate investment function,real estate industry linkage effect,and leverage of real estate finance.Take Hangzhou as an example.the principles and methods for analyzing the rationality of urban housing prices are put forward.The following conclusions were reached through research:(1)Judging from the ratio of the growth rate of housing prices to the growth rate of GDP,housing prices in Hangzhou have changed reasonably.The ratio of change in house prices and GDP is in the expansion-coupling range,and is consistent with changes in population,urbanization rate,and per capita disposable income.(2)Judging from the price-to-income ratio,the housing price ratio in Hangzhou is high.This is because the calculation of the housing price/income ratio process does not take into account differences in income of different strata,the funding of the previous generation(or several generations),the asset value of the welfare housing before the real estate reform,and the current urban housing price is reached by both parties of the transaction,it does not violate market principles..(3)From the perspective of the ratio of land prices to housing prices,Hangzhou 's land prices account for a high proportion of housing prices.This is due not only to the scarcity of land resources,but also to the emergence of "land kings" in the process of land transfer bidding,which is the behavior of real estate developers,determining by demands.(4)In terms of the ratio of rents to prices,Hangzhou has a high rental and sales ratio.Because of the non-standard leasing market and the inertia of low rents under the traditional welfare system,at the same time,real estate investors do not hope to buy housing and rely on rent to recover investment,but the appreciation of house prices.(5)From the perspective of land use ratios for different purposes,Hangzhou's residential land prices are relatively higher than industrial land prices because of the large financial contribution from industrial economic development and significant employment.In addition,Hangzhou's high residential land prices are due to the high degree of marketization,the more sale of auctions,and fierce competition.(6)From the analysis of the housing guarantee function,the increase in housing prices in Hangzhou did not really damage the quality of life of urban residents.In recent years,the per capita living area in urban areas has increased,and the living conditions of low-income residents have continued to improve.In addition,in light of the reality of Hangzhou,the necessity and feasibility of macro regulation and management of urban housing prices were demonstrated.(1)The rational growth of the real estate market plays an important role in the steady and orderly growth of the national economy,the real estate market regulation can restrain real estate prices from rising significantly.(2)The low-income families' purchase of houses through the market is not realistic.The government has the responsibility to solve their housing difficulties and provide them with relatively reasonable housing units,areas,and supporting facilities.(3)Due to the fixed position of its real estate and the scarcity of land,the housing market is prone to excessive speculation.In order to guide the healthy development of the real estate market,it is necessary for the government to adopt a reasonable credit,limit purchase and limit price policy.(4)Due to the problem of information asymmetry,in the process of residential marketing,on the one hand,developers deliberately continue to increase prices,causing panic to consumers;on the other hand,deliberately raising land prices,exaggerating the cost of land for residential construction,allowing consumers to increase the expectations of rising house prices,squeeze profits.In order to reduce the developer's pricing advantage,the government should entrust third party agencies to publish real estate market surveys on a regular basis to timely disclose market demand,industry trends,land prices,building materials prices,industry wage levels,and profit levels to minimize consumption,reducing misjudgment of the house price trend.