Study On The Southern Xinjiang New Urbanization And Development Of The Relationship Between The Third Industry

Urbanization as a driving economic growth, transformation of industrial structure, promote the transformation and upgrading of a way, in the positive effect is obvious in developing countries, especially for China’s underdeveloped regions in Western China, urbanization rate is low, the size of a small city, the rise space is still very great. Xinjiang is located in the northwest region of China, there are more agricultural resources and mineral resources, but also China’s gateway to Central Asia and West Asia portal,in recent years the central government’s Belt and Road Initiative "development strategy planning, which provides an important opportunity for the Xinjiang urbanization and industrial transformation and upgrading.In this paper, the system combs the domestic and foreign existing on the urbanization and the third industrial development and economic growth on the basis of theoretical and empirical literature on the relationship, from the perspective of empirical test five southern prefectures(Bayingolin Mongol Autonomous Prefecture, and Hetian, Kashi, Kyzyl Su Ke Er Kezi Autonomous Prefecture and Aksu area)since 2000 between urbanization and the third industry development level relations. The following conclusions were obtained by the whole and sub regional tests:(1) in southern Xinjiang Urbanization Rate in 2000-2014 years showed a rising, stable two-stage feature.2 Bayingolin Mongol Autonomous Prefecture, the urbanization rate has been at the highest level, in 2006 began the region urbanization rate of nearly 80% of the level, followed by the Aksu region and the Kizilsu Kirgiz Autonomous Prefecture, urbanization rate in between 55% to 65%, then Kashgar Prefecture, is the lowest in the Hotan region, urbanization rate at about 35%. In the southern region of the tertiary industry output value of the proportion in 2000-2014 during the period from relatively smooth, 2014 the tertiary industry output value of the proportion was 33.9% below the average level of the country and Xinjiang.From five prefectures, Oblast of the tertiary industry output value of the proportion has been in the highest level, followed by and in Hetian, Kashi and Aksu area, the lowest in Bavaria, the third industry output value of the proportion of the at around 20%.(2) the fractal theory and the gray relational degree analysis, five southern districts of the city size distribution is relatively loose, concentration is low, population distribution difference is bigger, the first in the region of monopoly is stronger, and its spatial interaction is weak. Third industry four internal levels, in addition to the fourth level(public management of the international defense industry) and other industries are relatively low, the other level of the industry’s gray correlation. Urbanization and the third industry’s first level of industrial association is the highest, with second, three levels of difference is not, and the lowest level of industrial association with the fourth.(3) the existence of stable long-run equilibrium relationship in the southern regions of the urbanization rate and the proportion of industrial output value of third sequences. Granger causality test showed that southern region’s urbanization rate is not the tertiary industry output value of the proportion of Granger cause, but the proportion of the tertiary industry output value is the Granger cause of the urbanization rate.The conclusion is verified by the VAR model. Five prefectures of the respective data also shows that the urbanization rate and the proportion of tertiary industry output value exists cointegration relationship, but Granger causality and VAR model results, in Bavaria, Aksu Prefecture, Hetian area, urbanization rate is not the third industry output value than the Granger cause heavy, and the proportion of the tertiary industry output value of is the Granger cause of the urbanization rate, for oblast and Kashgar, the rate of urbanization and the tertiary industry output value of the proportion of the each is not Granger causality.The results of VAR model and Granger causality test are consistent.At the end of this paper, based on the conclusions of the study, this paper puts forward some relevant policy recommendations.