The Impact Of The Limit Of Carbon Emission On The Adjustment Of Chinese Export Commodity Structure

Firstly, the essay analyzedthe present situation of Chinese annual export commodity structure from 2002-2014 and the trend of carbon emissions, then the essay estimated production of carbon emissions and the carbon emission intensity of 2002-2014; Then it used linear regression analysis method to test the relation of export and the amount of carbon emissions of 2002-2014, finally the essay found there was a positive correlation between the export value and carbon emissions; According to industry classification standard, the essay finished to merge the industries, and on the basis of energy consumption data we can calculated the carbon emission intensity of three different larger industries: capital-intensive industry, resource-intensive industry and labor-intensive industry. Then with the method of factor decomposition, the essay calculated the scale effect, structure effect and technology effect of the three industries, finally proved the total effect was positive, the effects of carbon emissions reduction brought from technology can’t offset the scale effect and structure effect. In particular, for the capital intensive industry, the structure effect was positive, the upgrading of technology and reformation of industrial structure need to be treated with great caution in the further days. This paper added an industry analysis and calculate the amount of carbon of each industry. With the utilization of industry’s export competitiveness index and of the capital intensive industry, the essay finally illustrated the high carbon emission industries had export competitive advantage and there was positive correlation between export competitive advantage and carbon emissions. At the end of this paper, we put forward the policy recommendations on the possibility of export carbon emission control in China.