Economic Growth And Structural Change Of Bohai Economic Circle

At present, the economic development of the Bohai Economic Circle(BEC) has been promoted to the national development strategy. However, it has not been able to form a development model with regional development characteristics. The role of growth pole, especially the pulling effect on the regional economy is not obvious. To guide the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure is the fundamental problem to get rid of the obstacles to the development of BEC. Therefore, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the changes of the regional economic structure, the development trend and the influencing factors of the economic structure.Using the fundamental economic structure(FEC) analysis method, this paper made a research on the change regularity and development trend of the BEC’s economic structure. Moreover, the economic structure of BEC has been forecasted, and the influence of economic structure change on economic growth has been analyzed. Mainly include the following:First of all, in the acquisition of research data, the existing input-output matrix RAS adjustment method is developed. On the one hand, the solution to improve the estimation accuracy is discussed; On the other hand, both forward and backward matrices information are used to improve the objective function, and the DRAS method is deduced according to the original model. Secondly, using the improved FES analysis method to study the change regularity of BEC and its impact on output. Results show that the secondary industry, such as food manufacturing and tobacco processing industry, metal smelting and rolling processing industry, still dominates the development of BEC. As the transportation industry and catering industry devloped rapidly, the impact of third industry on the economic output has increased. The influence of modern service industry on economic output is very obvious, but these industries are not yet mature with poor stability. Finally, the economic structure of BEC is predicted, and the impact on economic output is analyzed. The study found that the industry is still in a dominant position in the next period of time, but the second industry and the third industry lack the necessary economic links. The main problem is that the independence of the third industry gradually manifested, and how to solve it is the key to the development of the industry in the future.Promoting the coordinated development of the Bohai economic circle and adjusting the economic structure, and gradually realizing the transformation from resource oriented to technology and service oriented should still be the main strategy of industrial developments。 Therefore, to strengthen ties between the tertiary industry and other industries, to reduce the tertiary industry’s independence, and to give full play to the technological stimulating effect and the infrastructure supporting effect are essential to achieve the steady adjustment of economic structure.