| Low-carbon development is an important part of national and regional development strategies. China, as the largest greenhouse gas emitter, is a particular focus of attention and facing tremendous pressure, and the government promised to glimpse the carbon emission peak around 2030. Meanwhile, there are some factors existing to hamper the construction of ecological civilization in China, like the rigid demands for natural recourses with the rapid economic growth, the imperfect regulation system for natural recourses as well as inefficient use of resources. Therefore, it is a critical asset for the regulation construction of natural recourses use to consider the goal of carbon emission peak.Based on spatial, statistical as well as survey data, this paper chose Jiangsu province as a case study, by combining the development planning and objectives in environmental and recourse fields. Firstly, it could be done to divide Jiangsu into four zones according to the inner relationship and regional nature of different natural resources, through the zoning index system of natural recourses use, and then we compiled a set of inventory for the calculation of the carbon sink capacity of natural resources; Considering the development processes and planning of different zones, we developed three kinds of scenarios, baseline, energy-saving and low-carbon scenarios, to accessing carbon emissions and carbon sequestration of natural recourses. After that, we explored the net carbon emission peak, as well as assessing the impacts of natural recourses on reducing the amounts of carbon emissions and the year of emission peak. Apart from these work, we also put forward some important policy recommendations for the use regulation of natural recourses. The main conclusions of this paper were as follows:(1) With the index system of Natural Recourses-Development of Economy and Society-Environmental Pressure, Jiangsu province could be divided into four zones of natural recourses regulation, the first one including Nanjing, Suzhou, Wuxi, Changzhou and Zhenjiang; the second one includes Taizhou and Yangzhou; the third zone includes Nantong, Yancheng and Lianyungang; the last one includes Xuzhou, Suqian and Huaian.(2)The carbon sink capacity of forest is the strongest among all vegetation resources’, while the ability of vegetation on the constructions is higher than grass due to the rise of the greening rate. The carbon sink capacity of decreases in turn from the first zone to the fourth zone. The soil recourses of cultivated land, forest land, water area, coastal area, urban land, rural residential as well as the industrial and transportation construction play a part in carbon sinking, while that on grassland acted as a role of carbon source due to the excessive intervention of human activities. Among them, the carbon sink of urban land, water area and forest land had the strongest effects.(3)In terms of the carbon emissions and the changes, the amount of carbon emissions in Jiangsu province increased by nearly three times during the period of 2000 to 2013. The emissions rose significantly from energy consumption and the processes of industrial production, which took up more than 90% of the total in 2013 The emissions from waste were be controlled well, while the emissions from stockbreeding had a 43% fall due to its smaller scale especially the reduction in the number of large livestock. It only rose by 3.3% in terms of population among the research period as Jiangsu had a relative stable population. The carbon sink ability remained the same level, with little change from 2000-2013, which showed that it needs a more strict regulation on natural recourses for improving the carbon sink capacity.(4) The carbon emissions from four regulation zones of natural resources in Jiangsu province kept a rising trend over the research period, with energy consumption and industrial production as the main contributors. Among them, the emissions from the first zone accounted for 62.4% of the total amounts, while carbon sequestration stayed consistent with no significant changes. The second regional district took up the minimum amount of carbon emissions, only 9.6% of the total, and the natural resources in it contributed to absorbing 2% carbon emissions. It could be seen that carbon emissions from the third zone had a 2.26 times rise during the study period, with the carbon uptake from natural resources increasing slightly. The emissions from the fourth area had the most significant rise, increasing by 2.44 times during the study period, with natural resources reducing 3.4% emissions.(5) Under the baseline scenario, it is difficult for Jiangsu to reach the peak of carbon in 2030, which will be reached in 2035. The first district will reach its peak in 2025, while the others will reach the peak in 2035,2037 and 2040, respectively. Compared with the baseline scenario, the energy-saving scenario is more in accordance with the achievements of balance between economic growth and control of carbon emissions in Jiangsu province, which is about to reach the peak year of carbon emissions in 2024. Among them, the first zone will reach the peak in 2019, while the remaining three districts will all reach a peak in 2029. In low carbon scenario, a more effective one for reducing carbon emissions, Jiangsu is going to reach its peak in 2025, with which the peak years of the second, the third and the fourth districts are consistent, but the first zone will be the first to reach its peak in 2019.(6) The role of carbon sink effects in natural resources works in these three scenarios. In the baseline scenario, carbon uptake of natural resources will be 384.96 million tons when the net carbon emissions reach its peak in Jiangsu province by 2035. While in energy-saving scenario, due to the increase of the carbon sink capacity of natural resources, the carbon peak years of Jiangsu province and its four areas are one year ahead of schedule, comparing with the total carbon emissions. When Jiangsu reaching its emission peak in 2024, its carbon uptake of natural resources is 382.99 million tons. In low-carbon scenario, factors such as energy consumption reducing take effects more significantly, therefore, the peak year of Jiangsu will not change, with the carbon absorption quantity of the natural resources 383.89 million tons in 2025.This paper provides some suggestions as below for the regulation of natural recourses from the perspective of controlling carbon emission peak in Jiangsu Province. One is helpful to control the emission peak, including to strengthen the management of vegetation, soil resources as well as water recourses; The second advice is to optimize the regulation system of natural resource use, including rational planning for land use, strengthen the construction of low carbon and new energy, as well as optimizing the pattern of land space development; The last one is to put forward some suggestions for sustainable development of Jiangsu Province, which includes setting up a completed management system of natural resources, making full use of the price leverage of resources and environment, as well as improving the resources audit and protection mechanism. |
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