| According to the guidance of the ministry of agriculture on the further adjustment and optimization of agricultural structure, a new round of agricultural structure adjustment put forward new requirements to rapeseed production. And the optimization of rapeseed production distribution become necessary to speed up the adjustment of agricultural structure. Meanwhile, how to enhance the edible vegetable oil selfsufficiency rate also put new test because of unceasing enhancement of China’s edible vegetable oil external dependence degree. As the self-sufficiency rate of second high in oil varieties, rapeseed plays an important role in this process. In addition, Chinese rapeseed production distribution itself also showed some significant changes in the past 20 years, and need to study emphatically. The paper takes the optimization of rapeseed production distribution as the breakthrough point, and empirically studies the Chinese rapeseed production distribution evolution and its driving factors for the period of 1993 to 2013, which can provide some decision-making basis for the optimization of rapeseed production distribution and the promoting of the adjustment of agricultural structure.Based on the basis of systematic literature review of existing research, firstly, the paper analyzes the tempo-spatial distribution evolution of rapeseed production completely in different regions by using producing concentration index, production scale index, origin concentration coefficient, efficiency comparative advantage index, scale comparative advantage index and comprehensive comparative advantage index. Secondly, analyzes the driving factors of evolution in nationwide, the Yangtze River preponderant area and northern spring rapeseed preponderant area by constructing an econometric model and using provincial panel data. Lastly, put forward policy recommendations for the optimization of rapeseed production based on the conclusions.The paper finds that, from the production concentration index, the main rapeseed production provinces have been more concentrated, but the ranking of some main provinces have changed, and this change can be divided into 5 types, that is, wavelike decrease type, wavelike rise type, steady rise type, stable fluctuation type and other type. From the production scale index, rapeseed production distribution generally presents the “eastward subtraction, westward move and northward expansion”. From the origin concentration coefficient, the origin concentration degree is moving toward a higher level, and the origin becomes more and more concentrated. From the regional comparative advantage index, most of the main rapeseed production provinces have a long-time stability in regional comparative advantages.Based on the above systematic study, the paper further studies the driving factors behind the tempo-spatial distribution evolution. The driving factors include effective irrigation area, disaster rate, rapeseed-wheat relative income, non-farm employment, per capita arable land area, material input, technological progress, policy environment, market price change rate, and kilometer density. The empirical results show that the driving factors have different effect on rapeseed production in different regions. Nationally, effective irrigation area, disaster rate, relative income, material input, technological progress and market price change rate have significant positive impact on rapeseed production, and non-farm employment has significant negative impact on rapeseed production. In the Yangtze River preponderant area, effective irrigation area, disaster rate, material input, technological progress, policy environment, market price change rate and kilometer density have significant positive impact on rapeseed production. In northern spring rapeseed preponderant area, effective irrigation area, technological progress, and kilometer density have significant positive impact on rapeseed production, and disaster rate, relative income, non-farm employment have significant negative impact on rapeseed production.Finally, the paper provides several policy recommendations for optimizing rapeseed production distribution based on the conclusions. Firstly, grasp the basic evolution laws of rapeseed production distribution and give full play to regional comparative advantages. Secondly, strengthen the agricultural infrastructure construction and the early warning, prevention and control of agricultural disasters. Thirdly, further improve the agricultural policies for supporting agriculture, and avoid “the rapeseed is cheap”. Lastly, focus on the development of winter fallow field in Yangtze River Valley area, and strengthen the innovation and promotion of rapeseed technology. |
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