The Research Of Climate Change And Its Response On Grass And Animal Husbandry And Herdsmen’s Income In Ali, Tibet

As the most sensitive and fragile alpine grassland ecosystem, climate change has become one of the important factors affecting the development of grassland animal husbandry, pastoral life and national ecological security in Ali area, Tibet. Therefore, the study of the impacts of climate change on grassland productivity and animal husbandry production is vital for the plateau and the sustainable development of social economy in Ali and even the ecological security barrier protection in Tibet. In this study, we collected the animal husbandry related samples from a total of 650 representative households through home visits and sampling survey in Purang, Gar and Gerze counties, and divided them into regional advantage group(a) and the inferior group(b) for further analysis. Meanwhile, using the meteorological data of 29-years(1985-2013) in this area, combined with the Thornthwaite and Memorial Miami model, the responses of the climate productivity on the income, and the development of animal husbandry were analyzed. The results were as follows:1. Average temperature in Ali area was significantly increased in recent 29 years, with the tendency rate of 0.588, 0.727 and 0.504℃/10 a in these counties respectively, whereas mean precipitation considerably increased with the tendency rate of 8.395 mm per decade in Purang. Besides, precipitation in Gar reduced slightly with the tendency rate of-2.926 mm, and the tendency rate of precipitation in Gerze was determined to be 29.047 mm/10 a, which indicated a strong positive trend.2. The overall trend of climate productivity in Ali was in a state of increase, with tendency rate of 421.68, 233.17 and-97.268 kg/(hm2?10a) in Gerze, Purang and Gar. The utilization rate of climatic productivity in these counties was low, and climatic productivity stepped up from west to east, coefficients of variation were 0.18, 0.39 and 0.63 in Gerze, Purang and Gar. It was suggested that the stability of the counties decreased as the following order: Gerze > Purang > Gar.3. As climate productivity added one kg/(hm2?a), the income increased 0.415 yuan. Meanwhile, with stock and effective grassland area increased one sheep-unit and hectare, the income raised 25.333 and 0.064 yuan, respectively. When productivity decreased from Purang to Gerze and then Gar, the income experienced an opposite trend. The coefficient of per capita income and climate productivity in Ali area was 0.677, suggesting a significant correlation.4. For the regional advantage group, it is vital to develop the grassland tourism services and other economic means, whereas to the inferior group, it is essential to pay more attention to the conservation, improvement and scientific utilization of the grassland.