The Study On Pension Funds Sustainability Based On Shanghai Urban And Rural Insurance Convergence

For the establishment of urban and rural pension insurance system, in February 2014 China formally promulgated the "Provisional Measures convergence of urban and rural pension insurance system implementation of views" to achieve a seamless transfer of urban and rural pension insurance relationship. After convergence approach to the implementation of urban and rural old-age insurance, reducing the inflow of population to some extent the degree of aging, relieve the current pressure on pension fund payments. But the social pension insurance system is a continuous system that requires longer sustainable. In the long run, when the flow of insured retirement surge in population inflow will face even greater burden on pension expenditure.Taking Shanghai as an example, the use of population shift algorithms and gray model to predict the existing urban and rural pension reform cohesion policy in the next 50 years Shanghai Basic pension insurance population and participated in two or more systems or flow insured population, the analysis of urban and rural convergence of long-term impact of pension reform policy of Shanghai Basic pension payment number.Through the establishment of pension income function, function and pension expenditure gap function, impact the financial sustainability of the Basic pension for the reform of cohesion policy for simulation. Finally, based on optimal control theory in the next 50 years Shanghai Basic pension gap minimization goal, the corresponding optimization program, optimization of urban and rural old-age insurance reform cohesion policy.Through analysis concluded: Under China’s current pension system, the national pension system after the implementation of convergence in the short term, Shanghai urban basic old-age insurance fund income will increase overall account, which can be realized in the short term surpluses; but in the long term(the next 50 years), Shanghai urban basic old-age insurance fund has been present and the future of the current gap increases over time there is increasing trend, which in 2023--2049 years of rapid growth, from the 2.39 billion yuan to 242.86 billion yuan, the fund accumulated gap reached 6.66432 trillion yuan in 2065, under the current system there is a big threat to the Shanghai Basic pension grade long-term sustainable development.This paper estimates based on the conclusions, as well as analysis of the reasons for the emergence of the pension gap, we propose two optimization program: first, increasing floating population(including remote urban workers and rural residents insured group pension insurance person) to participate Number of basic old-age insurance for urban workers in Shanghai, Shanghai optimization Basic pension insurance structure, relieve pressure in the short term pension fund shortfall, but after calculation found that the program should pay attention to proper implementation of import control population, to avoid excessive Shanghai population and aggravate the burden of the post insurance fund. Second, Notional account reform, using the "full account" to improve the fund gap. Notional account reform program "full account" to achieve under the basic pension insurance system for urban workers, the national co-ordinating the establishment of a unified urban and rural social endowment insurance system foundation. Meanwhile, in the sixth chapter of the increase in fund investment yield(including investment fund industry, financial institutions entrusted to carry out the investment trust and investment proportion infrastructure and appropriate expansion of pension investment capital markets), a clear government responsibility to establish an orderly mechanism for financial assistance as well as the allocation of state-owned assets, profit supplementary pension pooling account the effective role of pension fund gap and analyzes the combined effect of the implementation of the policy, not only provides data analysis for the Shanghai pension development, but also for basic old-age insurance for urban workers in Shanghai can be sustainable development provides theoretical and policy reference.