Research Of The Flow Pattern And Monitoring Of Fresh Agricultural Products

Fresh agricultural products have properties which are distinct from other agricultural products: they have small scale of production, obvious seasonality, significant regionalism and long production cycle;they are not easy to store; their elasticity of supply and demand on the market price is rigid; they have higher requirements on the circulation facilities and preservation technology. Because of regionalism,seasonality and structure, producing areas take turn when fresh agricultural products are from farm to table and flow distribution is complex which is generally from main producing areas to shortage areas.With the rapid development of agricultural products wholesale markets, the flow of fresh agricultural products is gradually forming a mode which takes large-scale wholesale markets of demanding areas as the center and relies on the wholesale markets of main producing areas, thereby presenting a cross-flow on the flow pattern of distribution. Based on the above backgrounds it is significant to summary and analyze the law of fresh agricultural products’ flow between producing areas and demanding areas.Firstly, this paper makes a comparative analysis to production pattern and consumption situation of vegetable, fruit, aquatic products and determines the approximate law of flow situation and distribution of fresh agricultural products combining with the actual situation, for example, the flow of vegetables whose yield is big, substituting capacity is strong between different varieties and consumption price elasticity coefficient is very small will be bigger than fruits, aquatic products and aquatic production is strongly regional and generally show the trend that flow from main producing areas to shortage areas; secondly the paper analyzes long-run equilibrium relationships between producing areas and demanding areas using Johansen co-integration test, and then constructs VEC model to examine the short-term consolidation of areas which fit long-run equilibrium, and then analyzes price fluctuation transmission between market portfolios which exist equilibrium with the Wald-Granger test; thirdly, by researching and monitoring eleven vegetables in Jingxi wholesale vegetable market, this paper analyzes forming process of flow pattern of different vegetables and makes qualitative and quantitative analysis to the seasonal variation of trading volume and volatility of ring growth; finally, based on the above analysis, the paper proposes a qualitative analysis of the rational flow radius which can be the basis for optimizing the flow pattern.The conclusions of this paper are as follows: 1) the flow situation of fresh agricultural products is determined by supply and demand; 2) from long term, the market price of fresh agricultural products in main producing areas exists long term equilibrium relationship with other areas and the connection of price and flow between producing areas and demanding areas is close; 3) market price linkage effects of cabbage between southeast coastal areas and main producing areas is poor and price conduction effect between Beijing, Tianjin, Ningxia, Shanxi, Gansu and main producing areas is stable; 4) the flow pattern of fresh agricultural products are from scattered to centralized and forming stable modes which can be classified into three types: single point supply mode which means flow in from only one another place,two points supply mode which means flow in from local and one another place and multiple points supply mode which means flow in from more than one place; 5) the seasonality of fresh agricultural products’ flow distribution is obvious.