A Study On International Oil Price Fluctuation In The Perspective Of Oil’s Financial Properties

Oil, known as the "black gold", "flowing blood", is playing an important role in the modern industrial production, and it is the world’s competing strategic resources. But for a long time, the price of oil has been in continuous fluctuation, the lowest prices are for $35 / barrels, but high oil prices actually can be as high as $147.25 / barrel, such a surge in oil prices has been out of the fundamentals of supply and demand in traditional economics, and the total supply and demand of the international oil have been maintained at a relatively balanced state, in addition to the impact of geopolitical factors, what else factors affect the unusual fluctuation of international oil price,which is worth thinking about. From another point of view,in recent years, the rapid development of the oil futures market, as well as the extensive use of oil financial derivatives, make the financial property of the oil become increasingly prominent, speculative factors, as well as the dollar exchange rate is more likely to lead to sharp fluctuations of international oil prices in the short term. Therefore, this paper focuses on the influence factors of the international oil price fluctuation from the perspective of petroleum financial attributes.The second part of the article introduced the origin and development of oil financial attributes, the concept of "petroleum finance”, and the performance of petroleum finance. Then we obtained the analysis framework of international oil price fluctuation from the perspective of financial attributes, that’s “internal principle-- mathematical modeling-- empirical test”, which is the basis for building the structure of the article.The third and four parts are the key points of this thesis. The third chapter studies the internal mechanism of the price fluctuation from the perspective of the financial attribute of petroleum, making the conclusion that speculation is the direct cause; the dollar exchange rate has a systematic impact on oil prices, oil financial derivatives help push up oil prices. The fourth chapter is the empirical analysis, selects the US oil business inventories, nominal broad dollar index, non-business net positions, and the WTI futures price as the variables, verify the influence of financial factor on the international oil price fluctuations through the establishment of VAR model,observation of the impulse response function and the variance decomposition analysis. The final empirical results verify the theoretical analysis, that is, in the short term, the dollar exchange rate, speculative factors and other financial factors will enlarge the extent of the international oil price fluctuations.The last part of the article is the policy recommendations. It includes strengthening the construction of oil strategic reserve system, the development of China’s oil futures market, strengthening the innovation of oil financial instruments, the establishment of oil and financial risk supervision mechanism.