The Research On The Influence Of U.S.Dollar Exchange Rate Fluctuation On The Development Of Soybean Market

Soybean,as an important agricultural product in China,is closely related to national life.In 1996,China liberalized the import and export control of soybean,the scale of import and export trade has increased year by year,becoming an important index to influence the commodity index.In 2017,the total import and export volume of soybean is close to 100 million tons,and the foreign dependence of imports is more than 80%.As the size of soybean imports and exports expands,the fluctuation of the dollar exchange rate directly affects the stability and food security of the soybean market in China.Therefore,it is of great significance to study the relationship between US dollar exchange rate and soybean market in China.This paper first analyzes the theory of agricultural product price,the theory of trade J curve and the influence of exchange rate on trade,which lays the foundation for the later empirical analysis.Then analyzed the domestic and foreign soybean market development present situation.Furthermore,the influence mechanism of exchange rate fluctuation on soybean import and export and soybean price is analyzed theoretically,and setting up a vector auto-regressive(VAR)for the change of soybean import/export volume and exchange rate,a vector error correction(VEC)between soybean price and exchange rate changes,a unit root test,a Granger causality test,and an impulse response function tests the regression model empirically with ANOVA.Finally,this paper attempts to provide good policy suggestions for the development of soybean market in China through the results of empirical test.The main conclusions of the study are as follows:Firstly,there is a two-way causal relationship between the exchange rate fluctuation of the U.S.dollar and the soybean import and export of China.It is initially believed that the U.S.dollar exchange rate has an impact on the soybean trade.Secondly,the impact at long-term of soybean import and U.S.dollar exchange rate is negatively correlated,and the extent of its influence is also increasing over time.The fluctuation of the soybean exchange rate with the U.S.dollar is negative in the short term,but positive in the long term.Thirdly,there is a two-way causal relationship between the dollar exchange rate and the price of soybeans,which is the Granger cause of soyabean prices,as well as the dollar exchange rate of Granger.At the same time,the appreciation of the US dollar has increased in the same proportion as the increase in soybean prices,while the US dollar exchange rate has show a positive relationship for soybean prices in the long term.In view of the above conclusions,this paper proposes the following policy recommendations referring to the above conclusions from the aspects of increasing the investment of research,improving the quality of soybean,soybean production,and the domestic supply of soybean,strengthening the regulation function of soybean stock,stabilizing the price of domestic soybean,establishing a regulatory mechanism for the import and export of agricultural products,ensuring the safety of the soybean industry,creating a stable soybean supply chain,and reducing the import risks,speeding up the development of soybean processing industry and leading enterprises,improving the international competitiveness of soybean in China,improving the RMB exchange rate adjustment mechanism to achieve the adjustment of the long-term exchange rate level and its trend,elevating China's futures market and foreign exchange market,encouraging import and export enterprises of agricultural products and agricultural product processing enterprises to participate in futures trading,enriching foreign exchange products,and providing importers and exporters with flexible risk hedging instruments to hedge against foreign exchange risks.