Study On The Risk And Influencing Factors Of Individual Housing Mortgage Loan Of H Bank Qingdao Branch

With the rapid development of our country's economy as well as the excess liquidity lead to the consumer price index(CPI)in the upward trend,and before a few years the real estate market continues to maintain high,leadingto our country commercial bank's mortgage business have a rapid development.However,risk is inevitable arises with the development of economy,for commercial banks in C hina,the management and risk prevention are not adapted to the rapid development of personal housing loan business.In recent years,based on the continuing higher price of commercial house,most of middle-income families take personal housing mortgage loans to buy houses,for commercial Banks in China,that make the business volume of housing loan increased rapidly.However,due to the mode and operation mechanism ofC hina's personal housing mortgage loan is not yet mature,the personal housing mortgage loans of commercial Banks is facing all sorts of risks,such as market risk,operational risk and credit risk.At present,In te rms of personal housing mortgage loans,the internationally recognized that loans after 3-8 years was a period of frequent occurrence of the risk of default,At this stage,therefore,commercial bank is facing a serious housing loan defaults.Based on this,this paper takes H bank as an example,studies the factors that influenced the risk of personal housingmortgageloan,and to propose the corresponding countermeasures and thesuggestions.This paper first narrates the background of the selected topic and t he raise of questions,purpose and significance,refers to a large amount of relevant literatures at home and abroad on the risk of personal housing mortgage loan,puts forward the research method and train of thought,and points out that innovation and de ficiency of this article;Second,to summarize the theoretical basis of personal housing mortgage loan risk,including information asymmetry theory,credit risk theory,operational risk theory,market risk theory and liquidity risk theory;Then,this paper briefly introduces the H bank Q ingDao branch mortgage loan business,mainly includes the determina-tion of relevant concepts,the introduction of the operational processes and review the basis of examination and approval rules;the paper expounds the classification that H bank Q ingDao branch faces with the risk of personal housing mortgage loan,mainly including mortgage risk,the borrower risk,collateral risk,bank own risk;Fourth,to analyze the selection of variables,the selection of samples and model building.This paper use the 1713 loan samples in 2012.01-2015.12 of H bank Q ingDao branch as the research object,through the analysis combined with the actual situation,choose 18 variables to be the analysis indicators,Statistical analysis of variables,and adopt the factor analysis,discriminant analysis and Logistic regression model analysis method;Fifth,this is the mostimportant part of the article,based on the selected variables,using factor analysis method in the form of dimension reduction to eliminate multicollinearity between variables,to construct a set of new factor variables.Based on the new factor variables,taking advantage of discriminant analysis to structure a discriminant function,we can use this function to determine the classification of unknown samples.By Logistic regression analysis,to analyze the influence direction and degree that various factors on the risk of personal housing loan.Finally,through the analysis of this paper,this article comes up with countermeasures and Suggestions for H bank Q ingDao branch on how to preventing the risks of personal housing mortgage loan.