Research On Chinese Government Debt Risk Of Urban Rail Transit

Urban rail transit is an important urban infrastructure, beinga capital-intensive projects, whose investment is large. It not only needs huge investment in construction period, but alsocosts a lot of money in operation period.The investment each year since’ Twelfth five-year" is 162.8 billion yuan in 2011,191.4 billion yuan in 2012,216.5 billion yuan in 2013,289.9 billion yuan in 2014,300 billion yuan in 2015,350 billion yuan in 2016. According to statistics, at the end of 2015, a total of local government debt is about 16 trillion yuan. The government’s debt risk has intensified the trend, is expected to local government debt is about 17.2 trillion yuan in 2016.Heavy government spending pressure, Four levels of government debt burden disequilibrium, the pressure ofthe municipal government and the government at the county levelis bigger.When local financing platform strip the financing function, it is may cause gap between source of funding.The provinces debt burden differs very much, which may cause local debt crisis.How to evaluate and control the risk of government debt for the urban rail transit project is very important.The government faces multiple risks. At present our country mainly adopts "government&enterprise financing platform&bank loans&other financing channels" mode of financing, which is single.In the process of construction, the way for the government to raise capital and debt. Now, bank loan ratio is high, the orbit transportation construction costs continue to rise, the rail transit ticket prices is not high, traffic growth limited, thus urban rail transit is difficult to realize the balance of profit and loss and cash flow, it can only rely on subsidies or cross subsidies to sustain continuous operation, otherwise it will cause the sustained and rapid accumulation of debt, eventually spread the local government, banks and urban rail transit operation enterprise.Therefore, urban rail transit, high investment, high cost, long construction period, small passenger volume, low fares cause the massive construction of borrowing and weak profitability, and trigger a servicing problems and asset-liability ratio increases, which in turn leads to the accumulation of the urban rail transit project government debt risk.In this paper, I analyze the rail transit cases of Shenzhen, Hong Kong SAR and Japan. Combined with comprehensive grey clustering evaluation model, I evaluate debt risk of the part of the urban rail transit projects in China, and make a correlation analysis with government investment ability.The following conclusions,1 Drawing themaps of the government debt risk of urban rail transit in some cities between 2010 to 2020.Most of the cities in China risk in light precinct, but the risk is only considering the urban rail transit, did not consider other urban infrastructure.2 Government investment ability negative correlation with the size of risk, and the government investment ability stronger, the government debt risk of urban rail transit the lower.3 The cause of the rail transit government debt risk very much, includes local government investment and financing mode, traffic, construction costs, ticket prices custom flexibility as well as the diversity of profit channel.4 Most cities in China which introduce the PPP modecan improve the ability of government investment, which can reduce the risk of urban rail transit debt by about 20%.The government should formulate reasonable financing model, according to its own circumstance to reduce the government debt risk of urban rail transit.