Research On Risk Assessment And Control Of Oil Field Equipment Technological Transformation Project

After more than 50 years of development, equipment aging, corrosion and other issues have become increasingly apparent, resulting in a substantial decline in production efficiency, the urgent need for oil field equipment to transform. At present our country oil field equipment technological transformation project career is in the initial stage of development, compared with foreign similar projects, with a comprehensive high risk, high uncertainty, regional risk, and so on. Technology, capital and risk management level are the three main factors that determine the success or failure of technological transformation projects, especially the level of risk management is very important for the success or failure of technological transformation project. Therefore in order to ensure the smooth completion of the technical transformation project, use scientific and dynamic method of technical innovation projects risk for system identification, assessment, formed a set of effective risk prevention system is very necessary.In this paper, oil field equipment technology projects as the research object, based on the results of previous studies on the technical innovation project risk management overview. First of all, the steps of project risk management are re divided, including risk identification, risk assessment, risk response, risk monitoring, and other four links. Then analyzes the characteristics of the oil field equipment technical transformation project, the characteristics of risk, risk management objectives and the need to provide a strong theoretical guidance for the risk identification and evaluation of oilfield equipment technical innovation projects.Under the guidance of the theory of risk management of oilfield equipment technical innovation project, the risk identification of oilfield equipment technological transformation project is carried out. First of all, a summary of the technical transformation project, a comparative analysis of the general method of risk identification, according to the particularity of the article selected Delphi and work breakdown structure(WBS) for risk identification. Then the oil field equipment, technical project risk identification content and process are introduced in detail. Finally, the oil field equipment, technical transformation projects to determine the risk for technical risk, construction risk, quality risk, cost risk, schedule risk, environmental risk six possible risk.According to the identified risk factors for risk assessment, after considering the various risk assessment methods, the decision to choose the evaluation effect of the AHP and grey system comprehensive evaluation method. Next according to the comprehensive, hierarchical and operational principles to determine the oil field equipment technical innovation project risk evaluation index system. A comprehensive evaluation model of technological transformation project risk based on scientific process. The final selection of grey system comprehensive evaluation model is verified in practice, the calculated total project risk and the criteria layer risk size, in line with the expected results, indicating that the evaluation method in oilfield equipment technological transformation project has good applicability.Finally the paper put forward the risk response and monitoring measures of the project, in order to provide theoretical basis and practical guidance for the project of oilfield equipment makers and managers.